Trump won, now what?
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
94%chance
0.2%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
94%chance
0.9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
4%chance
0.1%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
17%chance
1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
3%chance
2.1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
8%chance
0.5%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
1%chance
1.5%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
14%chance
6%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
14%chance
0.5%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
2%chance
0.1%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
3%chance
0.1%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
28%chance
15.6%
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?
41%chance
12.5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
26%chance
0.5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
94%chance
0.2%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
94%chance
0.9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
4%chance
0.1%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
17%chance
1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
3%chance
2.1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
8%chance
0.5%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
1%chance
1.5%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
14%chance
6%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
14%chance
0.5%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
2%chance
0.1%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
3%chance
0.1%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
28%chance
15.6%
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?
41%chance
12.5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
26%chance
0.5%
