The KOSPI index (^KS11) has experienced extreme volatility in Q1 2026, peaking above 6,000 in late February on robust semiconductor exports and AI-driven demand for chips from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, before plunging over 12% in early March—its worst single-day drop ever—amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which triggered energy shocks and heavy foreign selling of 3 trillion won. As of March 31 close, the index stands at 5,052, down 4.3% today with a session low of 5,043, reflecting battered memory chip stocks and heightened risk aversion. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices near-certainty against new quarterly highs above 6,500 while assigning modest 6-11% implied probabilities to breaching lows near 4,500-4,800 if geopolitical risks intensify. Key catalysts ahead include the Bank of Korea's April 10 policy meeting amid stable 1.9% inflation and Q1 earnings season starting next week, with semiconductor revenue trends pivotal for rebound potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will KOSPI (^KS11) hit in Q1 2026?
What will KOSPI (^KS11) hit in Q1 2026?
$75,687 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
↑ 7000
No
↑ 6500
No
↑ 6000
Yes
↑ 5750
Yes
↑ 5500
Yes
↑ 5400
Yes
↑ 5300
Yes
↑ 5200
Yes
↑ 5100
Yes
↓ 4900
Yes
↓ 4800
No
↓ 4700
No
↓ 4600
No
↓ 4500
No
$75,687 Vol.
↑ 7000
$8,194 Vol.
No
↑ 6500
$8,087 Vol.
No
↑ 6000
$7,040 Vol.
Yes
↑ 5750
$2,004 Vol.
Yes
↑ 5500
$2,034 Vol.
Yes
↑ 5400
$1,700 Vol.
Yes
↑ 5300
$6,603 Vol.
Yes
↑ 5200
$928 Vol.
Yes
↑ 5100
$1,947 Vol.
Yes
↓ 4900
$1,989 Vol.
Yes
↓ 4800
$15,834 Vol.
No
↓ 4700
$3,900 Vol.
No
↓ 4600
$7,593 Vol.
No
↓ 4500
$7,835 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for the first quarter of 2026, any 1-minute candle for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for the first quarter of 2026, any 1-minute candle for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.The KOSPI index (^KS11) has experienced extreme volatility in Q1 2026, peaking above 6,000 in late February on robust semiconductor exports and AI-driven demand for chips from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, before plunging over 12% in early March—its worst single-day drop ever—amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which triggered energy shocks and heavy foreign selling of 3 trillion won. As of March 31 close, the index stands at 5,052, down 4.3% today with a session low of 5,043, reflecting battered memory chip stocks and heightened risk aversion. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices near-certainty against new quarterly highs above 6,500 while assigning modest 6-11% implied probabilities to breaching lows near 4,500-4,800 if geopolitical risks intensify. Key catalysts ahead include the Bank of Korea's April 10 policy meeting amid stable 1.9% inflation and Q1 earnings season starting next week, with semiconductor revenue trends pivotal for rebound potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for the first quarter of 2026, any 1-minute candle for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$75,687End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for the first quarter of 2026, any 1-minute candle for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for the first quarter of 2026, any 1-minute candle for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.The KOSPI index (^KS11) has experienced extreme volatility in Q1 2026, peaking above 6,000 in late February on robust semiconductor exports and AI-driven demand for chips from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, before plunging over 12% in early March—its worst single-day drop ever—amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which triggered energy shocks and heavy foreign selling of 3 trillion won. As of March 31 close, the index stands at 5,052, down 4.3% today with a session low of 5,043, reflecting battered memory chip stocks and heightened risk aversion. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices near-certainty against new quarterly highs above 6,500 while assigning modest 6-11% implied probabilities to breaching lows near 4,500-4,800 if geopolitical risks intensify. Key catalysts ahead include the Bank of Korea's April 10 policy meeting amid stable 1.9% inflation and Q1 earnings season starting next week, with semiconductor revenue trends pivotal for rebound potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for the first quarter of 2026, any 1-minute candle for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.
The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. All prices recorded on or before this date during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/.
Volume
$75,687End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The KOSPI index (^KS11) has experienced extreme volatility in Q1 2026, peaking above 6,000 in late February on robust semiconductor exports and AI-driven demand for chips from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, before plunging over 12% in early March—its worst single-day drop ever—amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which triggered energy shocks and heavy foreign selling of 3 trillion won. As of March 31 close, the index stands at 5,052, down 4.3% today with a session low of 5,043, reflecting battered memory chip stocks and heightened risk aversion. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices near-certainty against new quarterly highs above 6,500 while assigning modest 6-11% implied probabilities to breaching lows near 4,500-4,800 if geopolitical risks intensify. Key catalysts ahead include the Bank of Korea's April 10 policy meeting amid stable 1.9% inflation and Q1 earnings season starting next week, with semiconductor revenue trends pivotal for rebound potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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