Gold (GC) futures hover around $2,655/oz amid trader bets on Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory heading into year-end, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over end-of-December price targets. Recent sentiment shifted after November's 25 basis point Fed funds rate cut and dovish projections for two more in 2025, boosting gold via lower real yields on 10-year Treasuries (now ~4.15%) despite post-election U.S. dollar strength from anticipated Trump tariffs. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand, complemented by robust central bank buying exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD. Key catalysts include tomorrow's November CPI release (consensus: 2.7% YoY) and December 18 FOMC meeting, where hotter inflation could cap upside by strengthening the dollar. Prediction markets aggregate real-money trader consensus, pricing in a 40-50% range for moderate gains absent major shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
$172,620 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ $15,000
5%
↑ $12,000
7%
↑ $10,000
12%
↑ $8,000
11%
↑ $7,000
21%
↑ $6,000
48%
$172,620 Vol.
↑ $15,000
$17,411 Vol.
5%
↑ $12,000
$33,968 Vol.
7%
↑ $10,000
$14,990 Vol.
12%
↑ $8,000
$9,543 Vol.
11%
↑ $7,000
$22,510 Vol.
21%
↑ $6,000
$74,197 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Gold (GC) futures hover around $2,655/oz amid trader bets on Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory heading into year-end, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over end-of-December price targets. Recent sentiment shifted after November's 25 basis point Fed funds rate cut and dovish projections for two more in 2025, boosting gold via lower real yields on 10-year Treasuries (now ~4.15%) despite post-election U.S. dollar strength from anticipated Trump tariffs. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand, complemented by robust central bank buying exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD. Key catalysts include tomorrow's November CPI release (consensus: 2.7% YoY) and December 18 FOMC meeting, where hotter inflation could cap upside by strengthening the dollar. Prediction markets aggregate real-money trader consensus, pricing in a 40-50% range for moderate gains absent major shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Volume
$172,620End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Gold (GC) futures hover around $2,655/oz amid trader bets on Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory heading into year-end, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over end-of-December price targets. Recent sentiment shifted after November's 25 basis point Fed funds rate cut and dovish projections for two more in 2025, boosting gold via lower real yields on 10-year Treasuries (now ~4.15%) despite post-election U.S. dollar strength from anticipated Trump tariffs. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand, complemented by robust central bank buying exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD. Key catalysts include tomorrow's November CPI release (consensus: 2.7% YoY) and December 18 FOMC meeting, where hotter inflation could cap upside by strengthening the dollar. Prediction markets aggregate real-money trader consensus, pricing in a 40-50% range for moderate gains absent major shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Volume
$172,620End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Gold (GC) futures hover around $2,655/oz amid trader bets on Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory heading into year-end, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over end-of-December price targets. Recent sentiment shifted after November's 25 basis point Fed funds rate cut and dovish projections for two more in 2025, boosting gold via lower real yields on 10-year Treasuries (now ~4.15%) despite post-election U.S. dollar strength from anticipated Trump tariffs. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand, complemented by robust central bank buying exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD. Key catalysts include tomorrow's November CPI release (consensus: 2.7% YoY) and December 18 FOMC meeting, where hotter inflation could cap upside by strengthening the dollar. Prediction markets aggregate real-money trader consensus, pricing in a 40-50% range for moderate gains absent major shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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