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What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?

Market icon

What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?

$20,042 Vol.

Feb 4, 2022
Polymarket

$20,042 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

Above 4.2%?

$1,144 Vol.

No

Market icon

Above 4.0%?

$1,255 Vol.

No

Market icon

Above 3.8%?

$15,022 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Above 3.6%?

$1,671 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Above 3.4%?

$949 Vol.

Yes

This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 4.2%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 4.0%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.8%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.6%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.4%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.

This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 4.2%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 4.0%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.8%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.6%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.4%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account. —————————— The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A schedule of release dates is available on the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at 8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically displays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Above 3.8%?" at 100%, followed by "Above 3.6%?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?" is "Above 3.8%?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Above 3.6%?" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the U-3 unemployment rate in January?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.