Name: What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?
Start: 2025-08-12T16:44:20.75483Z
End: 2026-01-01T04:00:00Z

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What levels will Microstrategy's NAV reach by December 31?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Microstrategy's mNAV is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution will be based on StrategyTracker's "NAV Premium & Performance" chart available at https://strategytracker.com/mstr/, with "1M" and "Diluted Shares" selected.

NAV data for any given date will be considered finalized once the data point for the following calendar day is published on the chart.

This market will resolve based on the specified StrategyTracker chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

↑ 2.00

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Microstrategy's mNAV is equal to or lower than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution will be based on StrategyTracker's "NAV Premium & Performance" chart available at https://strategytracker.com/mstr/, with "1M" and "Diluted Shares" selected.

NAV data for any given date will be considered finalized once the data point for the following calendar day is published on the chart.

This market will resolve based on the specified StrategyTracker chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

↓ 1.50

↓ 1.00

↑ 2.50

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. 

The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is forced to liquidate any of its Bitcoin holdings/positions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, due to lender action or other external financial obligations beyond its control. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Forced liquidation is defined as the sale of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy or a lender as a direct result of a contractual obligation, such as a loan default, an unfulfilled margin call, or legal/regulatory enforcement requiring the company to sell. Voluntary Bitcoin sales, proactive debt repayments, or discretionary asset reallocation will not count. 

The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting. 


Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market.

An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.


Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Phantom is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Metamask is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch?

This market will resolve according to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the lowest performance during the calendar year 2025.

Performance will be measured as the percentage change in each specified security's price during this market's timeframe, calculated by comparing the closing price for the last official trading day prior to this timeframe (December 31, 2024) to the closing price for the last official trading day within this timeframe (December 31, 2025).

All companies that are constituents of the Nasdaq-100 as of market issuance will be eligible for consideration, regardless of whether they are removed before the market's resolution date. Any company added to the index after market creation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the “Historical Quotes” page for the specified ticker on Nasdaq at: nasdaq.com.

Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.

If multiple specified companies exhibit exactly the same lowest performance, the market will resolve to the company whose ticker appears first in alphabetical order.

If any unspecified company achieves the lowest performance during the relevant period, the market will resolve to “Other”.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.

If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

Updates to historical prices displayed after resolution will not be considered.

Will The Trade Desk (TTD) be the worst performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

↑ 2.50
$6,226 Vol.
1%

↑ 2.00
$129,591 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

Rules

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

Market Context

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

About

Related

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

↑ 2.50$6,226 Vol.1%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.5¢

↑ 2.00$129,591 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

Market Context

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

Rules

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

Market Context

What levels will Microstrategy's mNAV hit by December 31?

About

Related

↑ 2.50
$6,226 Vol.
1%

↑ 2.00
$129,591 Vol.
<1%