Trader consensus slightly favors Conor McGregor at 29.5% implied probability for Max Holloway's next UFC bout, with Benoît Saint Denis (26.5%) and Paddy Pimblett (26.0%) nipping closely behind in this lightweight-heavy field, reflecting Holloway's strong BMF title performance against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 and his competitive wars despite the recent featherweight title knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 on October 26. No official opponent announcement from UFC has emerged in the past month, keeping the race tight amid speculation of a permanent lightweight move; McGregor's blockbuster draw edges him ahead despite his extended layoff, while BSD's aggressive grappling and Pimblett's submission threat represent stylistic tests for Holloway's elite volume striking, alongside historical foes like Dan Hooker (19.0%). Recent contender wins by BSD and Pimblett bolster their cases in the crowded 155-pound rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPaddy Pimblett 35%
Benoît Saint Denis 31%
Conor McGregor 30%
Arman Tsarukyan 22%
$20,521 Vol.
$20,521 Vol.
Paddy Pimblett
23%
Benoît Saint Denis
27%
Conor McGregor
30%
Arman Tsarukyan
15%
Alexander Volkanovski
21%
Islam Makhachev
20%
Dan Hooker
19%
Mateusz Gamrot
12%
Maurício Ruffy
7%
Justin Gaethje
6%
Ilia Topuria
4%
Paddy Pimblett 35%
Benoît Saint Denis 31%
Conor McGregor 30%
Arman Tsarukyan 22%
$20,521 Vol.
$20,521 Vol.
Paddy Pimblett
23%
Benoît Saint Denis
27%
Conor McGregor
30%
Arman Tsarukyan
15%
Alexander Volkanovski
21%
Islam Makhachev
20%
Dan Hooker
19%
Mateusz Gamrot
12%
Maurício Ruffy
7%
Justin Gaethje
6%
Ilia Topuria
4%
Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place.
Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
If Max Holloway is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus slightly favors Conor McGregor at 29.5% implied probability for Max Holloway's next UFC bout, with Benoît Saint Denis (26.5%) and Paddy Pimblett (26.0%) nipping closely behind in this lightweight-heavy field, reflecting Holloway's strong BMF title performance against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 and his competitive wars despite the recent featherweight title knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 on October 26. No official opponent announcement from UFC has emerged in the past month, keeping the race tight amid speculation of a permanent lightweight move; McGregor's blockbuster draw edges him ahead despite his extended layoff, while BSD's aggressive grappling and Pimblett's submission threat represent stylistic tests for Holloway's elite volume striking, alongside historical foes like Dan Hooker (19.0%). Recent contender wins by BSD and Pimblett bolster their cases in the crowded 155-pound rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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