Polymarket traders closely split their bets on President Trump's April 3 approval rating between the 40.0–40.4% (46%) and 39.5–39.9% (39.5%) bins, reflecting polling averages hovering near 40% amid recent declines. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week pegged approval at a second-term low of 36%, driven by backlash to escalating Iran conflict airstrikes, surging fuel prices, and high economic disapproval ratings exceeding 60% in some polls. Variations across trackers like RealClearPolitics (43% approve) and American Research Group (34%) underscore the tight consensus, with Hispanic and young voter support slipping. Short-term separation could stem from diplomatic de-escalation signals, fresh economic data, or upcoming polls before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated40.0–40.4 48%
39.5–39.9 40%
<39.0 8.9%
39.0–39.4 5%
$123,905 Vol.
$123,905 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
<39.0
9%
39.0–39.4
5%
39.5–39.9
40%
40.0–40.4
48%
40.5–40.9
2%
41.0+
1%
40.0–40.4 48%
39.5–39.9 40%
<39.0 8.9%
39.0–39.4 5%
$123,905 Vol.
$123,905 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
<39.0
$6,885 Vol.
9%
39.0–39.4
$6,697 Vol.
5%
39.5–39.9
$53,671 Vol.
40%
40.0–40.4
$46,824 Vol.
48%
40.5–40.9
$4,504 Vol.
2%
41.0+
$5,324 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders closely split their bets on President Trump's April 3 approval rating between the 40.0–40.4% (46%) and 39.5–39.9% (39.5%) bins, reflecting polling averages hovering near 40% amid recent declines. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week pegged approval at a second-term low of 36%, driven by backlash to escalating Iran conflict airstrikes, surging fuel prices, and high economic disapproval ratings exceeding 60% in some polls. Variations across trackers like RealClearPolitics (43% approve) and American Research Group (34%) underscore the tight consensus, with Hispanic and young voter support slipping. Short-term separation could stem from diplomatic de-escalation signals, fresh economic data, or upcoming polls before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$123,905End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders closely split their bets on President Trump's April 3 approval rating between the 40.0–40.4% (46%) and 39.5–39.9% (39.5%) bins, reflecting polling averages hovering near 40% amid recent declines. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week pegged approval at a second-term low of 36%, driven by backlash to escalating Iran conflict airstrikes, surging fuel prices, and high economic disapproval ratings exceeding 60% in some polls. Variations across trackers like RealClearPolitics (43% approve) and American Research Group (34%) underscore the tight consensus, with Hispanic and young voter support slipping. Short-term separation could stem from diplomatic de-escalation signals, fresh economic data, or upcoming polls before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$123,905End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders closely split their bets on President Trump's April 3 approval rating between the 40.0–40.4% (46%) and 39.5–39.9% (39.5%) bins, reflecting polling averages hovering near 40% amid recent declines. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week pegged approval at a second-term low of 36%, driven by backlash to escalating Iran conflict airstrikes, surging fuel prices, and high economic disapproval ratings exceeding 60% in some polls. Variations across trackers like RealClearPolitics (43% approve) and American Research Group (34%) underscore the tight consensus, with Hispanic and young voter support slipping. Short-term separation could stem from diplomatic de-escalation signals, fresh economic data, or upcoming polls before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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