Keir Starmer confronts escalating leadership speculation amid dismal polls showing Reform UK ahead of Labour by seven points and Greens surging past them after a March by-election upset in Gorton and Denton. Recent internal turmoil, including a Labour minister's resignation, peer suspensions over misconduct and false credentials, and MP Karl Turner's whip suspension for criticizing government policy, has prompted efforts to shore up support, such as offering London Mayor Sadiq Khan a House of Lords seat post-May elections. Starmer's 48-hour ultimatum to avert post-Easter doctors' strikes highlights delivery challenges, with traders eyeing May 7 local elections—expected to deliver heavy Labour losses—as a potential catalyst for a party leadership challenge despite the government's majority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,309,064 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
2%
June 30
32%
December 31
59%
$10,309,064 Vol.
April 30
$85,494 Vol.
2%
June 30
$1,314,891 Vol.
32%
December 31
$846,081 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Keir Starmer confronts escalating leadership speculation amid dismal polls showing Reform UK ahead of Labour by seven points and Greens surging past them after a March by-election upset in Gorton and Denton. Recent internal turmoil, including a Labour minister's resignation, peer suspensions over misconduct and false credentials, and MP Karl Turner's whip suspension for criticizing government policy, has prompted efforts to shore up support, such as offering London Mayor Sadiq Khan a House of Lords seat post-May elections. Starmer's 48-hour ultimatum to avert post-Easter doctors' strikes highlights delivery challenges, with traders eyeing May 7 local elections—expected to deliver heavy Labour losses—as a potential catalyst for a party leadership challenge despite the government's majority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$10,309,064End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Keir Starmer confronts escalating leadership speculation amid dismal polls showing Reform UK ahead of Labour by seven points and Greens surging past them after a March by-election upset in Gorton and Denton. Recent internal turmoil, including a Labour minister's resignation, peer suspensions over misconduct and false credentials, and MP Karl Turner's whip suspension for criticizing government policy, has prompted efforts to shore up support, such as offering London Mayor Sadiq Khan a House of Lords seat post-May elections. Starmer's 48-hour ultimatum to avert post-Easter doctors' strikes highlights delivery challenges, with traders eyeing May 7 local elections—expected to deliver heavy Labour losses—as a potential catalyst for a party leadership challenge despite the government's majority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$10,309,064End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Keir Starmer confronts escalating leadership speculation amid dismal polls showing Reform UK ahead of Labour by seven points and Greens surging past them after a March by-election upset in Gorton and Denton. Recent internal turmoil, including a Labour minister's resignation, peer suspensions over misconduct and false credentials, and MP Karl Turner's whip suspension for criticizing government policy, has prompted efforts to shore up support, such as offering London Mayor Sadiq Khan a House of Lords seat post-May elections. Starmer's 48-hour ultimatum to avert post-Easter doctors' strikes highlights delivery challenges, with traders eyeing May 7 local elections—expected to deliver heavy Labour losses—as a potential catalyst for a party leadership challenge despite the government's majority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions