Market icon
Politics·Starmer

Starmer out by...?

Market icon
Politics·Starmer

Starmer out by...?

$10,133,567 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$10,133,567 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$790,352 Vol.

1%

April 30

$67,194 Vol.

7%

June 30

$1,286,369 Vol.

44%

December 31

$805,536 Vol.

67%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Keir Starmer's Labour government holds a commanding 174-seat majority in Parliament following the July 2024 general election, insulating him from immediate no-confidence votes or snap elections despite mounting internal pressures. The October 30 budget's employer National Insurance hikes, capital gains tax increases, and winter fuel payment cuts for millions of pensioners triggered widespread backlash, culminating in 52 Labour MPs abstaining on a contentious welfare bill last week—the largest rebellion since taking power. Starmer's personal approval ratings hover near historic lows for a new prime minister, narrowing Labour's poll lead amid economic headwinds, yet no viable leadership challenger has surfaced, as party rules require 20% of MPs to trigger a contest. Traders eye May 2025 local elections and potential spring fiscal events as key tests that could escalate discontent or solidify his position.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$10,133,567
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 10:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Keir Starmer's Labour government holds a commanding 174-seat majority in Parliament following the July 2024 general election, insulating him from immediate no-confidence votes or snap elections despite mounting internal pressures. The October 30 budget's employer National Insurance hikes, capital gains tax increases, and winter fuel payment cuts for millions of pensioners triggered widespread backlash, culminating in 52 Labour MPs abstaining on a contentious welfare bill last week—the largest rebellion since taking power. Starmer's personal approval ratings hover near historic lows for a new prime minister, narrowing Labour's poll lead amid economic headwinds, yet no viable leadership challenger has surfaced, as party rules require 20% of MPs to trigger a contest. Traders eye May 2025 local elections and potential spring fiscal events as key tests that could escalate discontent or solidify his position.

Keir Starmer's Labour government holds a commanding 174-seat majority in Parliament following the July 2024 general election, insulating him from immediate no-confidence votes or snap elections despite mounting internal pressures. The October 30 budget's employer National Insurance hikes, capital gains tax increases, and winter fuel payment cuts for millions of pensioners triggered widespread backlash, culminating in 52 Labour MPs abstaining on a contentious welfare bill last week—the largest rebellion since taking power. Starmer's personal approval ratings hover near historic lows for a new prime minister, narrowing Labour's poll lead amid economic headwinds, yet no viable leadership challenger has surfaced, as party rules require 20% of MPs to trigger a contest. Traders eye May 2025 local elections and potential spring fiscal events as key tests that could escalate discontent or solidify his position.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?

70%
Market icon

Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?

17%
Market icon

Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?

66%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Starmer out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 67%, followed by "June 30" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Starmer out by...?" has generated $10.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Starmer out by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Starmer out by...?" is "December 31" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Starmer out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.