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Nipah virus in US by March 31?

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Nipah virus in US by March 31?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$67,625 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$67,625 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed human case of Nipah virus in the territory of the United States of America is reported between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket places 100% implied probability on "No" for Nipah virus detection in the US by March 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of any confirmed cases in CDC and WHO surveillance data through the deadline. Nipah virus (NiV), a zoonotic pathogen with fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) as its natural reservoir, remains confined to South and Southeast Asia, with no native US bat hosts and no history of local transmission. Recent outbreaks in India (January 2026, West Bengal) and Bangladesh (February 2026, Rajshahi) prompted heightened global monitoring, including US traveler screenings, yet no imported infections materialized despite NiV's limited human-to-human spread. Realistic shifts would require an undetected traveler case evading robust epidemiological networks, an improbable scenario given ongoing real-time reporting from official public health agencies.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed human case of Nipah virus in the territory of the United States of America is reported between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.
Volume
$67,625
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed human case of Nipah virus in the territory of the United States of America is reported between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed human case of Nipah virus in the territory of the United States of America is reported between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket places 100% implied probability on "No" for Nipah virus detection in the US by March 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of any confirmed cases in CDC and WHO surveillance data through the deadline. Nipah virus (NiV), a zoonotic pathogen with fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) as its natural reservoir, remains confined to South and Southeast Asia, with no native US bat hosts and no history of local transmission. Recent outbreaks in India (January 2026, West Bengal) and Bangladesh (February 2026, Rajshahi) prompted heightened global monitoring, including US traveler screenings, yet no imported infections materialized despite NiV's limited human-to-human spread. Realistic shifts would require an undetected traveler case evading robust epidemiological networks, an improbable scenario given ongoing real-time reporting from official public health agencies.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed human case of Nipah virus in the territory of the United States of America is reported between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.
Volume
$67,625
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed human case of Nipah virus in the territory of the United States of America is reported between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nipah virus in US by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nipah virus in US by March 31?" has generated $67.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nipah virus in US by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nipah virus in US by March 31?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nipah virus in US by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.