New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, commands 98.5% implied probability as the Calder Trophy favorite after a record-shattering rookie season, leading all first-year players with over 50 points (21 goals, 29 assists) in 69 games as the youngest blueliner ever to hit those marks. His transformative impact includes a 20-goal campaign—the fourth for a rookie defenseman in NHL history—monthly honors like October Rookie of the Month, and recent "First Star of the Week" nods, pulling him far ahead of challengers like Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke amid the 2025-26 regular season's home stretch. Trader consensus reflects his unmatched production and ice time records, though a late injury or explosive finish by top forwards could theoretically narrow the gap before awards voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMatthew Schaefer 98.5%
Ivan Demidov 1.1%
Alex Bump <1%
Beckett Sennecke <1%
$308,742 Vol.
$308,742 Vol.
Matthew Schaefer
99%
Ivan Demidov
1%
Alex Bump
<1%
Beckett Sennecke
<1%
Luca Del Bel Belluz
<1%
Helge Grans
<1%
Isaac Howard
<1%
Jimmy Snuggerud
<1%
Zeev Buium
<1%
Calum Ritchie
<1%
Levi Merilainen
<1%
Alexander Nikishin
<1%
Arseniy Gritsyuk
<1%
Michael Misa
<1%
Oliver Kapanen
<1%
Zayne Parekh
<1%
Cutter Gauthier
<1%
Nikita Chibrikov
<1%
Ryan Leonard
<1%
Samuel Honzek
<1%
Linus Karlsson
<1%
Owen Pickering
<1%
Sam Rinzel
<1%
Artyom Levshunov
<1%
Rutger McGroarty
<1%
Joakim Kemell
<1%
Justin Sourdif
<1%
Danila Yurov
<1%
Logan Mailloux
<1%
Jett Luchanko
<1%
Easton Cowan
<1%
James Hagens
<1%
Maxim Shabanov
<1%
Axel Sandin-Pellikka
<1%
Liam Ohgren
<1%
Colton Dach
<1%
Cameron Lund
<1%
Yaroslav Askarov
<1%
Lane Hutson
<1%
Leo Sahlin-Wallenius
<1%
Dmitri Simashev
<1%
Seamus Casey
<1%
Brennan Othmann
<1%
Oliver Moore
<1%
Tom Willander
<1%
Karsen Dorwart
<1%
Liam Greentree
<1%
Daniil But
<1%
Carter King
<1%
Trevor Connelly
<1%
Shane Lachance
<1%
Dans Locmelis
<1%
Justin Robidas
<1%
Fabian Lysell
<1%
Ethan Del Mastro
<1%
Maveric Lamoureux
<1%
Scott Morrow
<1%
Noah Ostlund
<1%
Ville Ottavainen
<1%
Jonathan Lekkerimaki
<1%
Rory Kerins
<1%
Luca Cagnoni
<1%
Gabe Perreault
<1%
Matthew Savoie
<1%
Jesper Wallstedt
<1%
Bradly Nadeau
<1%
Fraser Minten
<1%
Jake O'Brien
<1%
Berkly Catton
<1%
Dalibor Dvorsky
<1%
Sam Dickinson
<1%
Matthew Wood
<1%
Jani Nyman
<1%
Will Smith
<1%
Brad Lambert
<1%
Aydar Suniev
<1%
Jacob Fowler
<1%
Andrew Cristall
<1%
Ville Koivunen
<1%
Jack DeVine
<1%
Ozzy Wiesblatt
<1%
Matthew Schaefer 98.5%
Ivan Demidov 1.1%
Alex Bump <1%
Beckett Sennecke <1%
$308,742 Vol.
$308,742 Vol.
Matthew Schaefer
99%
Ivan Demidov
1%
Alex Bump
<1%
Beckett Sennecke
<1%
Luca Del Bel Belluz
<1%
Helge Grans
<1%
Isaac Howard
<1%
Jimmy Snuggerud
<1%
Zeev Buium
<1%
Calum Ritchie
<1%
Levi Merilainen
<1%
Alexander Nikishin
<1%
Arseniy Gritsyuk
<1%
Michael Misa
<1%
Oliver Kapanen
<1%
Zayne Parekh
<1%
Cutter Gauthier
<1%
Nikita Chibrikov
<1%
Ryan Leonard
<1%
Samuel Honzek
<1%
Linus Karlsson
<1%
Owen Pickering
<1%
Sam Rinzel
<1%
Artyom Levshunov
<1%
Rutger McGroarty
<1%
Joakim Kemell
<1%
Justin Sourdif
<1%
Danila Yurov
<1%
Logan Mailloux
<1%
Jett Luchanko
<1%
Easton Cowan
<1%
James Hagens
<1%
Maxim Shabanov
<1%
Axel Sandin-Pellikka
<1%
Liam Ohgren
<1%
Colton Dach
<1%
Cameron Lund
<1%
Yaroslav Askarov
<1%
Lane Hutson
<1%
Leo Sahlin-Wallenius
<1%
Dmitri Simashev
<1%
Seamus Casey
<1%
Brennan Othmann
<1%
Oliver Moore
<1%
Tom Willander
<1%
Karsen Dorwart
<1%
Liam Greentree
<1%
Daniil But
<1%
Carter King
<1%
Trevor Connelly
<1%
Shane Lachance
<1%
Dans Locmelis
<1%
Justin Robidas
<1%
Fabian Lysell
<1%
Ethan Del Mastro
<1%
Maveric Lamoureux
<1%
Scott Morrow
<1%
Noah Ostlund
<1%
Ville Ottavainen
<1%
Jonathan Lekkerimaki
<1%
Rory Kerins
<1%
Luca Cagnoni
<1%
Gabe Perreault
<1%
Matthew Savoie
<1%
Jesper Wallstedt
<1%
Bradly Nadeau
<1%
Fraser Minten
<1%
Jake O'Brien
<1%
Berkly Catton
<1%
Dalibor Dvorsky
<1%
Sam Dickinson
<1%
Matthew Wood
<1%
Jani Nyman
<1%
Will Smith
<1%
Brad Lambert
<1%
Aydar Suniev
<1%
Jacob Fowler
<1%
Andrew Cristall
<1%
Ville Koivunen
<1%
Jack DeVine
<1%
Ozzy Wiesblatt
<1%
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 22, 2025, 5:33 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.nhl.com/awardsResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Source
https://www.nhl.com/awardsResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, commands 98.5% implied probability as the Calder Trophy favorite after a record-shattering rookie season, leading all first-year players with over 50 points (21 goals, 29 assists) in 69 games as the youngest blueliner ever to hit those marks. His transformative impact includes a 20-goal campaign—the fourth for a rookie defenseman in NHL history—monthly honors like October Rookie of the Month, and recent "First Star of the Week" nods, pulling him far ahead of challengers like Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke amid the 2025-26 regular season's home stretch. Trader consensus reflects his unmatched production and ice time records, though a late injury or explosive finish by top forwards could theoretically narrow the gap before awards voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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