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Sports·NCAA Basketball

NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals

Market icon
Sports·NCAA Basketball

NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals

$40,736 Vol.

Apr 4, 2026
Polymarket

$40,736 Vol.

Polymarket

Michigan

$2,488 Vol.

77%

Illinois

$1,225 Vol.

74%

Arizona

$6,909 Vol.

70%

Duke

$2,141 Vol.

69%

Tennessee

$380 Vol.

54%

UConn

$808 Vol.

52%

Purdue

$3,097 Vol.

31%

Iowa

$44 Vol.

28%

Iowa State

$2,072 Vol.

<1%

Alabama

$852 Vol.

<1%

Michigan State

$1,715 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team advances to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraws, disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament semifinals matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2026 NCAA men's tournament down to the Elite Eight after Sweet 16 action concluded March 27-28, trader consensus centers on top seeds Arizona, Duke, and Michigan alongside Purdue to advance to the Final Four semifinals, reflecting their dominant paths through chalk-heavy brackets. No. 9 Iowa's Cinderella run—upsetting No. 4 Nebraska 77-71 and earlier No. 1 Florida—fuels underdog value in the South Region clash versus No. 3 Illinois, who stifled No. 2 Houston 65-55. West Region pits No. 1 Arizona's rout of Arkansas (109-88) against No. 2 Purdue's thriller win over No. 11 Texas (79-77 on a game-winning tip-in). East features No. 1 Duke edging St. John's 80-75 versus No. 3 Michigan State, while Midwest has No. 1 Michigan (90-77 over Alabama) facing No. 2 Iowa State or No. 6 Tennessee pending final Sweet 16 outcome; no major injuries reported, but rest advantages and neutral-site familiarity loom large for Saturday-Sunday Elite Eight games.

With the 2026 NCAA men's tournament down to the Elite Eight after Sweet 16 action concluded March 27-28, trader consensus centers on top seeds Arizona, Duke, and Michigan alongside Purdue to advance to the Final Four semifinals, reflecting their dominant paths through chalk-heavy brackets. No. 9 Iowa's Cinderella run—upsetting No. 4 Nebraska 77-71 and earlier No. 1 Florida—fuels underdog value in the South Region clash versus No. 3 Illinois, who stifled No. 2 Houston 65-55. West Region pits No. 1 Arizona's rout of Arkansas (109-88) against No. 2 Purdue's thriller win over No. 11 Texas (79-77 on a game-winning tip-in). East features No. 1 Duke edging St. John's 80-75 versus No. 3 Michigan State, while Midwest has No. 1 Michigan (90-77 over Alabama) facing No. 2 Iowa State or No. 6 Tennessee pending final Sweet 16 outcome; no major injuries reported, but rest advantages and neutral-site familiarity loom large for Saturday-Sunday Elite Eight games.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team advances to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraws, disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament semifinals matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2026 NCAA men's tournament down to the Elite Eight after Sweet 16 action concluded March 27-28, trader consensus centers on top seeds Arizona, Duke, and Michigan alongside Purdue to advance to the Final Four semifinals, reflecting their dominant paths through chalk-heavy brackets. No. 9 Iowa's Cinderella run—upsetting No. 4 Nebraska 77-71 and earlier No. 1 Florida—fuels underdog value in the South Region clash versus No. 3 Illinois, who stifled No. 2 Houston 65-55. West Region pits No. 1 Arizona's rout of Arkansas (109-88) against No. 2 Purdue's thriller win over No. 11 Texas (79-77 on a game-winning tip-in). East features No. 1 Duke edging St. John's 80-75 versus No. 3 Michigan State, while Midwest has No. 1 Michigan (90-77 over Alabama) facing No. 2 Iowa State or No. 6 Tennessee pending final Sweet 16 outcome; no major injuries reported, but rest advantages and neutral-site familiarity loom large for Saturday-Sunday Elite Eight games.

With the 2026 NCAA men's tournament down to the Elite Eight after Sweet 16 action concluded March 27-28, trader consensus centers on top seeds Arizona, Duke, and Michigan alongside Purdue to advance to the Final Four semifinals, reflecting their dominant paths through chalk-heavy brackets. No. 9 Iowa's Cinderella run—upsetting No. 4 Nebraska 77-71 and earlier No. 1 Florida—fuels underdog value in the South Region clash versus No. 3 Illinois, who stifled No. 2 Houston 65-55. West Region pits No. 1 Arizona's rout of Arkansas (109-88) against No. 2 Purdue's thriller win over No. 11 Texas (79-77 on a game-winning tip-in). East features No. 1 Duke edging St. John's 80-75 versus No. 3 Michigan State, while Midwest has No. 1 Michigan (90-77 over Alabama) facing No. 2 Iowa State or No. 6 Tennessee pending final Sweet 16 outcome; no major injuries reported, but rest advantages and neutral-site familiarity loom large for Saturday-Sunday Elite Eight games.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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100%
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Will Duke advance to the National Championship?

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Will a 1 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 73+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michigan" at 77%, followed by "Illinois" at 74%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals" has generated $40.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals," browse the 73+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals" is "Michigan" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Illinois" at 74%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.