Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that Meta (META) stock closes above $490 on March 23, driven primarily by sustained momentum from February's blowout Q4 earnings, where revenue beat estimates by 5% and AI-driven ad targeting improvements boosted margins to 48%. Shares have climbed 12% since, trading near $488 intraday amid broader tech rally, though heavy AI capex commitments ($35-40B annually) raise valuation concerns at 28x forward earnings. Competitive pressures from Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-5 loom, but Zuckerberg's Llama 3 launch next week could catalyze further gains. Watch Friday's close volatility tied to PCE inflation data; resolution hinges on NYSE halt rules excluding after-hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$0.00 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
$590
Yes
$600
Yes
$610
No
$620
No
$630
No
$0.00 Vol.
$590
$0 Vol.
Yes
$600
$0 Vol.
Yes
$610
$0 Vol.
No
$620
$0 Vol.
No
$630
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on March 23 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that Meta (META) stock closes above $490 on March 23, driven primarily by sustained momentum from February's blowout Q4 earnings, where revenue beat estimates by 5% and AI-driven ad targeting improvements boosted margins to 48%. Shares have climbed 12% since, trading near $488 intraday amid broader tech rally, though heavy AI capex commitments ($35-40B annually) raise valuation concerns at 28x forward earnings. Competitive pressures from Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-5 loom, but Zuckerberg's Llama 3 launch next week could catalyze further gains. Watch Friday's close volatility tied to PCE inflation data; resolution hinges on NYSE halt rules excluding after-hours.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on March 23 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 8:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on March 23 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that Meta (META) stock closes above $490 on March 23, driven primarily by sustained momentum from February's blowout Q4 earnings, where revenue beat estimates by 5% and AI-driven ad targeting improvements boosted margins to 48%. Shares have climbed 12% since, trading near $488 intraday amid broader tech rally, though heavy AI capex commitments ($35-40B annually) raise valuation concerns at 28x forward earnings. Competitive pressures from Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-5 loom, but Zuckerberg's Llama 3 launch next week could catalyze further gains. Watch Friday's close volatility tied to PCE inflation data; resolution hinges on NYSE halt rules excluding after-hours.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on March 23 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 8:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that Meta (META) stock closes above $490 on March 23, driven primarily by sustained momentum from February's blowout Q4 earnings, where revenue beat estimates by 5% and AI-driven ad targeting improvements boosted margins to 48%. Shares have climbed 12% since, trading near $488 intraday amid broader tech rally, though heavy AI capex commitments ($35-40B annually) raise valuation concerns at 28x forward earnings. Competitive pressures from Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-5 loom, but Zuckerberg's Llama 3 launch next week could catalyze further gains. Watch Friday's close volatility tied to PCE inflation data; resolution hinges on NYSE halt rules excluding after-hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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