Name: Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?
Start: 2023-12-18T19:20:00Z
End: 2024-06-30T00:00:00Z

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On December 15, 2023, Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk announced they will pause all container shipments through the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on international shipping.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maersk announces they will resume shipping through the Red Sea between December 20, 2023, 12:00 PM ET and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Maersk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

June 30

On December 15, 2023, Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk announced they will pause all container shipments through the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on international shipping.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maersk announces they will resume shipping through the Red Sea between December 18, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Maersk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

December 31

On December 15, 2023, Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk announced they will pause all container shipments through the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on international shipping.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maersk announces they will resume shipping through the Red Sea between December 20, 2023, 12:00 PM ET and March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Maersk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

March 31

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.

1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

On December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-disables-shadow-fleet-vessel-with-sea-drones-black-sea-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any tanker in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. 

Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties such as Turkey, including the December 2 incident involving the tanker "Midvolga-2” will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/russian-tanker-struck-off-turkiye-as-ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet).

Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?

If Greta Thunberg visits the Gaza Strip between September 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Greta Thunberg physically entering the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip. Whether or not Greta Thunberg enters the Gaza Strip's airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

A visit to any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip, including visits to buffer zones, will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?

On December 10, 2025, US forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. More information can be found here: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-seizes-oil-tanker-off-venezuela-coast-us-officials-say-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States relinquishes its control over the seized oil tanker by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the United States must formally release the vessel from U.S. custody or operational control; a release will not count if the vessel has sunk or sustained fatal damage that renders it irreparable, though a vessel that remains repairable will qualify.

An announcement of intent to release the vessel will not suffice; U.S. control must actually be relinquished within this market’s timeframe to qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be at least 15m square kilometers?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact a Gulf state's ground territory, embassy, or consulate.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a Gulf state's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strike on Gulf State by December 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Syria strikes Israel by December 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Suwayda Governorate in Syria for military operations between July 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Suwayda Governorate will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
 
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs.

This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method.  

Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strikes Yemen by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), current head of the sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is removed from power for any length of time between August 27, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hemedti will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Hemedti out of power by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut between November 24, 2025, 11:30PM Israel Standard Time (IST) and the listed date, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.

For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, current leader of the Yemeni Houthis, is removed from power for any length of time between Sepember 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Abdul-Malik will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Yemen at any point between March 17, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Yemen to qualify. Entering Yemen's maritime or aerial territory will not count. 

High ranking US service members entering Yemen for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

December 31
$9,037 Vol.
Yes

March 31
$1,205 Vol.
Yes

June 30
$1,000 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

Rules

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

Market Context

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

About

Related

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

December 31$9,037 Vol.Yescircle check

March 31$1,205 Vol.Yescircle check

June 30$1,000 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

Rules

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

Market Context

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

About

Related

December 31
$9,037 Vol.
Yes

March 31
$1,205 Vol.
Yes

June 30
$1,000 Vol.
Yes