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icon for June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Juni 30

Juni 30

1.15–1.19ºC 67%

1.10–1.14ºC 22%

1.20–1.24ºC 9%

1.25–1.29ºC 2.9%

Polymarket

$13,876 Vol.

1.15–1.19ºC 67%

1.10–1.14ºC 22%

1.20–1.24ºC 9%

1.25–1.29ºC 2.9%

Polymarket

$13,876 Vol.

<1.10ºC

$511 Vol.

2%

1.10–1.14ºC

$5,965 Vol.

22%

1.15–1.19ºC

$466 Vol.

67%

1.20–1.24ºC

$3,574 Vol.

9%

1.25–1.29ºC

$1,749 Vol.

3%

>1.29ºC

$1,612 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data show May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with ongoing long-term warming placing monthly anomalies near 1.1–1.3 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 indices at +0.7 to +0.92 °C and expected to strengthen through 2026, is providing the primary near-term catalyst by enhancing equatorial Pacific heat content and atmospheric coupling. This follows a weaker La Niña influence in 2025 that moderated temperatures relative to the 2023–2024 peak. Trader consensus around 1.15–1.19 °C reflects model agreement on moderate June warming without rapid intensification, tempered by seasonal timing and natural variability; updated ENSO forecasts and mid-month satellite data releases remain key near-term drivers.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$13,876
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data show May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with ongoing long-term warming placing monthly anomalies near 1.1–1.3 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 indices at +0.7 to +0.92 °C and expected to strengthen through 2026, is providing the primary near-term catalyst by enhancing equatorial Pacific heat content and atmospheric coupling. This follows a weaker La Niña influence in 2025 that moderated temperatures relative to the 2023–2024 peak. Trader consensus around 1.15–1.19 °C reflects model agreement on moderate June warming without rapid intensification, tempered by seasonal timing and natural variability; updated ENSO forecasts and mid-month satellite data releases remain key near-term drivers.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$13,876
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „1.15–1.19ºC" mit 67%, gefolgt von „1.10–1.14ºC" mit 22%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 67¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 67% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $13.9K generiert, seit der Markt am May 26, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ist „1.15–1.19ºC" mit 67%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 67% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „1.10–1.14ºC" mit 22%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.