Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared with strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies toward the 1.15–1.19 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the elevated baseline, while the emerging event—forecast by NOAA and WMO ensembles to intensify through late 2026—adds positive forcing that historically elevates monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C during onset phases. Recent 2025 observations near 1.19 °C and early June 2026 Pacific heat-content surges align with this central outcome; model consensus and historical analogs limit downside risk below 1.10 °C while capping upside above 1.24 °C absent rapid further intensification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 68%
1.10–1.14ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.6%
<1.10ºC 2.0%
$20,808 Vol.
$20,808 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
16%
1.15–1.19ºC
72%
1.20–1.24ºC
4%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 68%
1.10–1.14ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.6%
<1.10ºC 2.0%
$20,808 Vol.
$20,808 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$512 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,146 Vol.
16%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,508 Vol.
72%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,384 Vol.
4%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,914 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$2,343 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared with strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies toward the 1.15–1.19 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the elevated baseline, while the emerging event—forecast by NOAA and WMO ensembles to intensify through late 2026—adds positive forcing that historically elevates monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C during onset phases. Recent 2025 observations near 1.19 °C and early June 2026 Pacific heat-content surges align with this central outcome; model consensus and historical analogs limit downside risk below 1.10 °C while capping upside above 1.24 °C absent rapid further intensification.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$20,808End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared with strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies toward the 1.15–1.19 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the elevated baseline, while the emerging event—forecast by NOAA and WMO ensembles to intensify through late 2026—adds positive forcing that historically elevates monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C during onset phases. Recent 2025 observations near 1.19 °C and early June 2026 Pacific heat-content surges align with this central outcome; model consensus and historical analogs limit downside risk below 1.10 °C while capping upside above 1.24 °C absent rapid further intensification.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,808End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared with strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies toward the 1.15–1.19 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the elevated baseline, while the emerging event—forecast by NOAA and WMO ensembles to intensify through late 2026—adds positive forcing that historically elevates monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C during onset phases. Recent 2025 observations near 1.19 °C and early June 2026 Pacific heat-content surges align with this central outcome; model consensus and historical analogs limit downside risk below 1.10 °C while capping upside above 1.24 °C absent rapid further intensification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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