Recent ocean heat records and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event, superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming, drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026. Preliminary Copernicus and NOAA data show sea surface temperatures already exceeding prior August maxima by early in the month, with land-ocean averages reflecting the same pattern amid widespread marine heatwaves. This context underpins the market’s 98.2% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome on those specific dates. Revised final datasets or unexpected cooling in reanalysis could still alter rankings, though historical precedent for such large downward adjustments remains limited once initial observations are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
<1%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$764 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$526 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$415 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent ocean heat records and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event, superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming, drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026. Preliminary Copernicus and NOAA data show sea surface temperatures already exceeding prior August maxima by early in the month, with land-ocean averages reflecting the same pattern amid widespread marine heatwaves. This context underpins the market’s 98.2% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome on those specific dates. Revised final datasets or unexpected cooling in reanalysis could still alter rankings, though historical precedent for such large downward adjustments remains limited once initial observations are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent ocean heat records and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event, superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming, drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026. Preliminary Copernicus and NOAA data show sea surface temperatures already exceeding prior August maxima by early in the month, with land-ocean averages reflecting the same pattern amid widespread marine heatwaves. This context underpins the market’s 98.2% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome on those specific dates. Revised final datasets or unexpected cooling in reanalysis could still alter rankings, though historical precedent for such large downward adjustments remains limited once initial observations are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ocean heat records and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event, superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming, drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026. Preliminary Copernicus and NOAA data show sea surface temperatures already exceeding prior August maxima by early in the month, with land-ocean averages reflecting the same pattern amid widespread marine heatwaves. This context underpins the market’s 98.2% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome on those specific dates. Revised final datasets or unexpected cooling in reanalysis could still alter rankings, though historical precedent for such large downward adjustments remains limited once initial observations are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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