Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 54.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recording over 200 preliminary tornadoes through March—far exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological norm of around 150 for January–March. Multiple major outbreaks, including deadly events in Oklahoma, Michigan, and the Midwest/Southeast during early March, fueled this surge amid lingering La Niña conditions that enhance wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. February confirmed 49 tornadoes (above average), while March tallied roughly 200 amid three significant severe weather episodes. As ENSO transitions to neutral through June (80% NOAA probability) with El Niño odds rising later, spring peaks in April–May could sustain elevated activity, though summer suppression remains a key uncertainty; watch SPC convective outlooks and monthly NCEI updates for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 48%
1100–1149 16.3%
1200–1249 9.5%
1050–1099 9%
$64,960 Vol.
$64,960 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
6%
950–999
2%
1000–1049
13%
1050–1099
9%
1100–1149
16%
1150–1199
9%
1200–1249
10%
1250+
54%
1250+ 48%
1100–1149 16.3%
1200–1249 9.5%
1050–1099 9%
$64,960 Vol.
$64,960 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$21,633 Vol.
6%
950–999
$2,055 Vol.
2%
1000–1049
$1,664 Vol.
13%
1050–1099
$7,114 Vol.
9%
1100–1149
$1,418 Vol.
16%
1150–1199
$1,723 Vol.
9%
1200–1249
$14,461 Vol.
10%
1250+
$14,892 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 54.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recording over 200 preliminary tornadoes through March—far exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological norm of around 150 for January–March. Multiple major outbreaks, including deadly events in Oklahoma, Michigan, and the Midwest/Southeast during early March, fueled this surge amid lingering La Niña conditions that enhance wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. February confirmed 49 tornadoes (above average), while March tallied roughly 200 amid three significant severe weather episodes. As ENSO transitions to neutral through June (80% NOAA probability) with El Niño odds rising later, spring peaks in April–May could sustain elevated activity, though summer suppression remains a key uncertainty; watch SPC convective outlooks and monthly NCEI updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$64,960End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 54.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recording over 200 preliminary tornadoes through March—far exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological norm of around 150 for January–March. Multiple major outbreaks, including deadly events in Oklahoma, Michigan, and the Midwest/Southeast during early March, fueled this surge amid lingering La Niña conditions that enhance wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. February confirmed 49 tornadoes (above average), while March tallied roughly 200 amid three significant severe weather episodes. As ENSO transitions to neutral through June (80% NOAA probability) with El Niño odds rising later, spring peaks in April–May could sustain elevated activity, though summer suppression remains a key uncertainty; watch SPC convective outlooks and monthly NCEI updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$64,960End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 54.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recording over 200 preliminary tornadoes through March—far exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological norm of around 150 for January–March. Multiple major outbreaks, including deadly events in Oklahoma, Michigan, and the Midwest/Southeast during early March, fueled this surge amid lingering La Niña conditions that enhance wind shear and instability for supercell thunderstorms. February confirmed 49 tornadoes (above average), while March tallied roughly 200 amid three significant severe weather episodes. As ENSO transitions to neutral through June (80% NOAA probability) with El Niño odds rising later, spring peaks in April–May could sustain elevated activity, though summer suppression remains a key uncertainty; watch SPC convective outlooks and monthly NCEI updates for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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