Name: How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?
Start: 2025-12-12T19:46:14.371297Z
End: 2025-12-25T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the total number of gifts delivered by Santa for Christmas 2025 as reported by the NORAD Santa Tracker website. 

If the reported total number of gifts delivered falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as data is finalized for 2025.

If data is not available by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the NORAD Tracks Santa website, https://www.noradsanta.org/en/. 

<7.9B

8 - 8.1B

8.2 - 8.3B

7.9 - 8B

8.1 - 8.2B

8.3 - 8.4B

>8.4B 

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record.

Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will December 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be at least 15m square kilometers?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Seattle this December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Weather Service records a snowfall observed value of at least .5 inches for the listed city on December 25, 2025.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Chicago O’Hare (Chicago), St. Louis, MO (St. Louis), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Detroit, MI (Detroit), Boston-Logan Airport (Boston), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Downtown San Francisco (San Francisco), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), and Washington-National (Washington D.C.).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will Boston have a white Christmas?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

This market will resolve according to the number of days on which precipitation is recorded as greater than 0 inches in Central Park, New York City between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "NY-Central Park Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" and the summary set to "Number of days" with the threshold at ">0" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025.
 
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will NYC record precipitation on 7 days or fewer in December?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 achieves a daily high price greater than 6,920.34 during market hours by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the S&P 500's highest intraday high during the specified timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance, specifically the finalized  "High" numbers listed under historical data (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed songs within the Billboard Hot 100’s Top 10 for the week titled “week of January 3, 2026”.

Only the listed songs within spots numbered 1 through 10 (inclusive) will qualify towards the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will Underneath the Tree - Kelly Clarkson be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it by 6PM to reflect streaming data for the previous day, beginning at 12AM UTC and ending 11:59PM the preceding day.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mariah Carey's 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' is the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the day labeled December 25.

If Spotify does not release its top song for December 25 by December 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The daily top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. 

Will Spotify's top song on December 25 be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2025 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Consumer Price Index” option under the "Key Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting "Table 1". The relevant figure can be found under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665

Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.2% in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Atlas global browser market share is at least the listed percentage on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The relevant data will be sourced from StatCounter Global Stats, utilizing the following settings: Statistic: Browser; Checked: Desktop, Mobile, Tablet, Console; Region: Worldwide; Period: Daily (https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#daily-20251014-20251020).

Only the first released data will be considered; later revisions will not be used. 

If "Atlas" is not explicitly listed under these settings when data for this date is first released, this market will resolve to "No".

If the data is not reported by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, or if the primary resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be selected.

Atlas global browser market share 5%+ on December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

<7.9B
$158,996 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

7.9 - 8B
$135,270 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

8 - 8.1B
$178,110 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

8.1 - 8.2B
$167,173 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

8.2 - 8.3B
$296,870 Vol.
94%
0123456789
%

8.3 - 8.4B
$150,314 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

>8.4B
$143,192 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

Rules

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

Market Context

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

About

Related

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

<7.9B$158,996 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

7.9 - 8B$135,270 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

8 - 8.1B$178,110 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

8.1 - 8.2B$167,173 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.5¢buy No97.8¢

8.2 - 8.3B$296,870 Vol.94%0123456789%buy Yes94.0¢buy No6.3¢

8.3 - 8.4B$150,314 Vol.3%0123456789%buy Yes2.9¢buy No97.3¢

>8.4B $143,192 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.3¢

Market Context

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

Rules

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

Market Context

How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?

About

Related

<7.9B
$158,996 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

7.9 - 8B
$135,270 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

8 - 8.1B
$178,110 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

8.1 - 8.2B
$167,173 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

8.2 - 8.3B
$296,870 Vol.
94%
0123456789
%

8.3 - 8.4B
$150,314 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

>8.4B
$143,192 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%