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Sports·Soccer

FIFA World Cup Group D Winner

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

FIFA World Cup Group D Winner

USA 39%

KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 32%

Paraguay 17%

Australia 12.7%

Polymarket

$22,662 Vol.

USA 39%

KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 32%

Paraguay 17%

Australia 12.7%

Polymarket

$22,662 Vol.

USA

$8,592 Vol.

39%

KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR

$5,995 Vol.

32%

Paraguay

$4,158 Vol.

17%

Australia

$3,916 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices USA at 41.5% implied probability to win Group D, driven by co-host home advantage with matches at SoFi Stadium and Lumen Field, superior FIFA ranking (16th), and squad depth under Mauricio Pochettino, though March friendlies exposed frailties in 5-2 and 2-0 losses to Belgium and Portugal amid Christian Pulisic's eight-game international scoring drought. Turkey follows closely at 32.5% after securing qualification via gritty 1-0 playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo on March 31, leveraging Hakan Çalhanoğlu's midfield orchestration, Arda Güler's creativity, and Kenan Yıldız's pace for counter threats. Paraguay's 16.5% reflects CONMEBOL's stingiest qualifying defense (10 conceded in 18 games), while Australia trails at 12.8% despite recent 1-0 and 5-1 friendly triumphs over Cameroon and Curaçao, weighed by long travel and 27th ranking.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22,662
End Date
Jun 27, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices USA at 41.5% implied probability to win Group D, driven by co-host home advantage with matches at SoFi Stadium and Lumen Field, superior FIFA ranking (16th), and squad depth under Mauricio Pochettino, though March friendlies exposed frailties in 5-2 and 2-0 losses to Belgium and Portugal amid Christian Pulisic's eight-game international scoring drought. Turkey follows closely at 32.5% after securing qualification via gritty 1-0 playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo on March 31, leveraging Hakan Çalhanoğlu's midfield orchestration, Arda Güler's creativity, and Kenan Yıldız's pace for counter threats. Paraguay's 16.5% reflects CONMEBOL's stingiest qualifying defense (10 conceded in 18 games), while Australia trails at 12.8% despite recent 1-0 and 5-1 friendly triumphs over Cameroon and Curaçao, weighed by long travel and 27th ranking.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22,662
End Date
Jun 27, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FIFA World Cup Group D Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "USA" at 39%, followed by "KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FIFA World Cup Group D Winner" has generated $22.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FIFA World Cup Group D Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FIFA World Cup Group D Winner" is "USA" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FIFA World Cup Group D Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.