George Russell leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability to win the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka, fueled by Mercedes' recent upgrades delivering superior race pace in high-speed corners during practice sessions, where he topped FP2 ahead of Charles Leclerc. Kimi Antonelli's 20.5% reflects strong rookie testing times and Mercedes' backing amid lineup speculation, positioning him as a dark horse despite limited F1 experience. Leclerc (7.5%) and Hamilton (6.5%) trail due to Ferrari and Mercedes' mixed pre-race form, while Verstappen's low 3.5% stems from Red Bull reliability concerns exposed in Australia. Recent weather forecasts favor dry conditions suiting pole contenders, with qualifying results pivotal for final sentiment shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGeorge Russell 58%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 21%
Charles Leclerc 8%
Lewis Hamilton 7%
$566,442 Vol.
$566,442 Vol.
George Russell
58%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
21%
Charles Leclerc
8%
Lewis Hamilton
7%
Max Verstappen
4%
Lando Norris
2%
Oscar Piastri
2%
Isack Hadjar
1%
Oliver Bearman
1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Nico Hulkenberg
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
George Russell 58%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 21%
Charles Leclerc 8%
Lewis Hamilton 7%
$566,442 Vol.
$566,442 Vol.
George Russell
58%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
21%
Charles Leclerc
8%
Lewis Hamilton
7%
Max Verstappen
4%
Lando Norris
2%
Oscar Piastri
2%
Isack Hadjar
1%
Oliver Bearman
1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Nico Hulkenberg
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...George Russell leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability to win the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka, fueled by Mercedes' recent upgrades delivering superior race pace in high-speed corners during practice sessions, where he topped FP2 ahead of Charles Leclerc. Kimi Antonelli's 20.5% reflects strong rookie testing times and Mercedes' backing amid lineup speculation, positioning him as a dark horse despite limited F1 experience. Leclerc (7.5%) and Hamilton (6.5%) trail due to Ferrari and Mercedes' mixed pre-race form, while Verstappen's low 3.5% stems from Red Bull reliability concerns exposed in Australia. Recent weather forecasts favor dry conditions suiting pole contenders, with qualifying results pivotal for final sentiment shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions