Trader consensus pins George Russell as the clear pole favorite at 46.5% for the Japanese Grand Prix, driven by Mercedes' blistering pace in Friday's FP2 where he topped the timesheets by 0.16s over teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli, highlighting the W16's superior single-lap speed on Suzuka's flowing sectors. Antonelli's breakout 35% implied probability underscores his rapid adaptation in just his second F1 outing, nipping at Russell's heels amid Mercedes' historical Suzuka strength. Charles Leclerc's 19% reflects Ferrari's solid but trailing FP2 third place, while Lewis Hamilton lags at 14.2% despite a clean session. Minimal disruptions, dry quali forecast, and Red Bull's midfield struggles keep others sidelined, amplifying Mercedes' edge in this tight qualifying battle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGeorge Russell 63%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 29%
Lewis Hamilton 23.2%
Charles Leclerc 21%
George Russell
46%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
35%
Lewis Hamilton
14%
Charles Leclerc
19%
Lando Norris
5%
Oscar Piastri
2%
Max Verstappen
2%
Sergio Perez
2%
Gabriel Bortoleto
2%
Franco Colapinto
2%
Valtteri Bottas
2%
Arvid Lindblad
1%
Alexander Albon
1%
Oliver Bearman
1%
Pierre Gasly
1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
1%
Nico Hulkenberg
1%
Liam Lawson
1%
Esteban Ocon
1%
Fernando Alonso
1%
Isack Hadjar
1%
George Russell 63%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 29%
Lewis Hamilton 23.2%
Charles Leclerc 21%
George Russell
46%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
35%
Lewis Hamilton
14%
Charles Leclerc
19%
Lando Norris
5%
Oscar Piastri
2%
Max Verstappen
2%
Sergio Perez
2%
Gabriel Bortoleto
2%
Franco Colapinto
2%
Valtteri Bottas
2%
Arvid Lindblad
1%
Alexander Albon
1%
Oliver Bearman
1%
Pierre Gasly
1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
1%
Nico Hulkenberg
1%
Liam Lawson
1%
Esteban Ocon
1%
Fernando Alonso
1%
Isack Hadjar
1%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus pins George Russell as the clear pole favorite at 46.5% for the Japanese Grand Prix, driven by Mercedes' blistering pace in Friday's FP2 where he topped the timesheets by 0.16s over teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli, highlighting the W16's superior single-lap speed on Suzuka's flowing sectors. Antonelli's breakout 35% implied probability underscores his rapid adaptation in just his second F1 outing, nipping at Russell's heels amid Mercedes' historical Suzuka strength. Charles Leclerc's 19% reflects Ferrari's solid but trailing FP2 third place, while Lewis Hamilton lags at 14.2% despite a clean session. Minimal disruptions, dry quali forecast, and Red Bull's midfield struggles keep others sidelined, amplifying Mercedes' edge in this tight qualifying battle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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