Trader consensus prices Mercedes at 70% implied probability for pole position in Japanese Grand Prix qualifying at Suzuka, reflecting George Russell's proven one-lap pace on the high-speed circuit—top-three grid starts in the last three visits—and the W16's aero efficiency suited to its flowing corners and long straights. Ferrari trails at 27.5%, bolstered by Lewis Hamilton's qualifying expertise joining Charles Leclerc, whose sector times shine here historically. Racing Bulls' 16.5% odds capture Yuki Tsunoda's home Grand Prix motivation and VCARB's recent qualifying upticks. Aston Martin (14.5%) and Williams (14%) gain from Fernando Alonso and Alex Albon's raw speed potential. Red Bull's slim 2.5% stems from recent development struggles and Adrian Newey's exit, while newcomers Cadillac and Audi hover around 5-8% on hype despite unproven machinery. No major updates in the past week, with pre-season testing key ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMercedes 71%
Ferrari 34%
Racing Bulls 17%
Aston Martin 14.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
Mercedes
71%
Ferrari
28%
Racing Bulls
17%
Aston Martin
14%
Williams
14%
Audi Revolut
10%
Mclaren Mastercard
10%
Cadillac
8%
Tgr Haas
3%
Alpine
2%
Red Bull
2%
Mercedes 71%
Ferrari 34%
Racing Bulls 17%
Aston Martin 14.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
Mercedes
$0 Vol.
71%
Ferrari
$5 Vol.
28%
Racing Bulls
$0 Vol.
17%
Aston Martin
$0 Vol.
14%
Williams
$0 Vol.
14%
Audi Revolut
$0 Vol.
10%
Mclaren Mastercard
$0 Vol.
10%
Cadillac
$0 Vol.
8%
Tgr Haas
$0 Vol.
3%
Alpine
$0 Vol.
2%
Red Bull
$102 Vol.
2%
This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Volume
$107End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Volume
$107End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices Mercedes at 70% implied probability for pole position in Japanese Grand Prix qualifying at Suzuka, reflecting George Russell's proven one-lap pace on the high-speed circuit—top-three grid starts in the last three visits—and the W16's aero efficiency suited to its flowing corners and long straights. Ferrari trails at 27.5%, bolstered by Lewis Hamilton's qualifying expertise joining Charles Leclerc, whose sector times shine here historically. Racing Bulls' 16.5% odds capture Yuki Tsunoda's home Grand Prix motivation and VCARB's recent qualifying upticks. Aston Martin (14.5%) and Williams (14%) gain from Fernando Alonso and Alex Albon's raw speed potential. Red Bull's slim 2.5% stems from recent development struggles and Adrian Newey's exit, while newcomers Cadillac and Audi hover around 5-8% on hype despite unproven machinery. No major updates in the past week, with pre-season testing key ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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