Name: DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day
Start: 2025-01-16T21:27:04.519961Z
End: 2025-01-20T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the level of DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day.

This market will resolve based on the total number of Metrorail trips (rail only) recorded on January 20, 2025, as reported by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) on its ridership portal: https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/ridership-portal/daily-summary.cfm.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 700,000 or more Metrorail rides taken on January 20, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

The ridership for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for January 20 is not available by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".  



700k+

This market will resolve based on the total number of Metrorail trips (rail only) recorded on January 20, 2025, as reported by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) on its ridership portal: https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/ridership-portal/daily-summary.cfm.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are between 600,000 (inclusive) and 700,000 (exclusive) Metrorail rides taken on January 20, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

The ridership for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for January 20 is not available by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".  



600-700k

This market will resolve based on the total number of Metrorail trips (rail only) recorded on January 20, 2025, as reported by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) on its ridership portal: https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/ridership-portal/daily-summary.cfm.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are less than 400,000 Metrorail rides taken on January 20, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

The ridership for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for January 20 is not available by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".  

<400k

This market will resolve based on the total number of Metrorail trips (rail only) recorded on January 20, 2025, as reported by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) on its ridership portal: https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/ridership-portal/daily-summary.cfm.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are between 400,000 (inclusive) and 500,000 (exclusive) Metrorail rides taken on January 20, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

The ridership for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for January 20 is not available by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".  



400-500k

This market will resolve based on the total number of Metrorail trips (rail only) recorded on January 20, 2025, as reported by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) on its ridership portal: https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/ridership-portal/daily-summary.cfm.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are between 500,000 (inclusive) and 600,000 (exclusive) Metrorail rides taken on January 20, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

The ridership for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for January 20 is not available by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".  



500-600k

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Washington D.C. for the 3-day weekend of January 24 through January 26 (inclusive) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figures for January 24, January 25, and January 26 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "Washington Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx link once that figure is finalized for the specified days. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026.

If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

This market will resolve to “Yes”  if both the following occur: 

1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 

2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.  

Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.

Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare  for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect. 

If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.  

Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the New England Patriots win the 2025-26 AFC Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the AFC Championship based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of January 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between January 24 and January 26, 2026 (inclusive), as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for the relevant dates has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Boston this weekend (January 24 - 26)?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any 1-minute candle for MARU (MARU/USDC) during Q1 2026 (from January 1 to 11:59 PM ET on March 31) has a final “High” price that implies a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the MARU token price by the total token supply.

The resolution source for this market is EdgeX, specifically the MARU/USDC price feed available at:
https://pro.edgex.exchange/spot/MARU/USDC
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles).

Only the EdgeX MARU/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered.

Will $MARU reach $600M in Q1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

This market will resolve according to DoorDash’s announced total orders for Q4 2025.

If DoorDash does not publish Q4 2025 total order figures by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be DoorDash investor relations earnings materials (https://ir.doordash.com/financials/quarterly-results/).

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

<400k
$17,091 Vol.
Yes

400-500k
$8,022 Vol.
No

500-600k
$3,004 Vol.
No

600-700k
$3,971 Vol.
No

700k+
$7,258 Vol.
No

Market Context

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

Rules

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

Market Context

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

About

Related

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

<400k$17,091 Vol.Yes

400-500k$8,022 Vol.No

500-600k$3,004 Vol.No

600-700k$3,971 Vol.No

700k+$7,258 Vol.No

Market Context

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

Rules

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

Market Context

DC Metrorail ridership on Inauguration Day

About

Related

<400k
$17,091 Vol.
Yes

400-500k
$8,022 Vol.
No

500-600k
$3,004 Vol.
No

600-700k
$3,971 Vol.
No

700k+
$7,258 Vol.
No