The Senate's rejection of a third Iran war powers resolution on March 25 by a 47-53 vote, following earlier House (219-212 on March 5) and Senate defeats, drives trader consensus toward an 81% implied probability of no passage by April 30. Democrats, led by figures like Sen. Chris Murphy, have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization or termination of President Trump's ongoing military strikes against Iran amid escalating hostilities, but narrow Republican majorities have upheld executive action on near-party-line votes, with rare crossovers like Sen. Rand Paul. Absent bipartisan momentum or new introductions, the partisan divide and procedural hurdles make approval unlikely before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
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Apr 30, 2026
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Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.The Senate's rejection of a third Iran war powers resolution on March 25 by a 47-53 vote, following earlier House (219-212 on March 5) and Senate defeats, drives trader consensus toward an 81% implied probability of no passage by April 30. Democrats, led by figures like Sen. Chris Murphy, have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization or termination of President Trump's ongoing military strikes against Iran amid escalating hostilities, but narrow Republican majorities have upheld executive action on near-party-line votes, with rare crossovers like Sen. Rand Paul. Absent bipartisan momentum or new introductions, the partisan divide and procedural hurdles make approval unlikely before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$4,156End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.The Senate's rejection of a third Iran war powers resolution on March 25 by a 47-53 vote, following earlier House (219-212 on March 5) and Senate defeats, drives trader consensus toward an 81% implied probability of no passage by April 30. Democrats, led by figures like Sen. Chris Murphy, have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization or termination of President Trump's ongoing military strikes against Iran amid escalating hostilities, but narrow Republican majorities have upheld executive action on near-party-line votes, with rare crossovers like Sen. Rand Paul. Absent bipartisan momentum or new introductions, the partisan divide and procedural hurdles make approval unlikely before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,156End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Senate's rejection of a third Iran war powers resolution on March 25 by a 47-53 vote, following earlier House (219-212 on March 5) and Senate defeats, drives trader consensus toward an 81% implied probability of no passage by April 30. Democrats, led by figures like Sen. Chris Murphy, have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization or termination of President Trump's ongoing military strikes against Iran amid escalating hostilities, but narrow Republican majorities have upheld executive action on near-party-line votes, with rare crossovers like Sen. Rand Paul. Absent bipartisan momentum or new introductions, the partisan divide and procedural hurdles make approval unlikely before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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