Name: Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Start: 2024-05-10T16:29:04.855164Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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On May 9, 2024, Hailey Bieber shared photos on Instagram suggesting that she is pregnant (see https://www.instagram.com/p/C6wlW3WPoK2/?img_index=1).

This market will resolve to "Boy" if Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives announces they are having a boy.
This market will resolve to '"Girl" if Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives announces they are having a girl.
If the biological sex of Hailey Bieber's child remains undisclosed this market will resolve to '50-50'. 

If Hailey Bieber gives birth to more than one child, this market will resolve based on the biological sex of the children. If all children are of the same biological sex, the market will resolve as '"Boy" if all are male, and "Girl" if all are female. If the children are of different sexes, the market will resolve to '50-50'.

This market refers only to the pregnancy announced on Instagram on May 9, 2024. Any future pregnancies will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information Hailey and Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives. 

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hailey Bieber announces that she is pregnant between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Hailey Bieber or her representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2025?

On Dec 12, Hailee Steinfeld revealed she was pregnant (see: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47289078/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-hailee-steinfeld-pregnant).

This market will resolve to "Boy" if Josh Allen, Hailee Steinfeld, or one of their official representatives announces that they are having a boy.

This market will resolve to "Girl" if Josh Allen, Hailee Steinfeld, or one of their official representatives announces that they are having a girl.

If the biological sex of Hailee Steinfeld's child remains undisclosed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50".

If Steinfeld gives birth to more than one child from this pregnancy, this market will resolve based on the biological sex of the children. If all children are of the same biological sex, the market will resolve as "Boy" if all are male, or "Girl" if all are female. If the children are of different sexes, the market will resolve to "50-50".

This market refers only to the current pregnancy. Any future pregnancies will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Josh Allen and Hailee Steinfeld however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber announce their intention to divorce between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement within this market's timeframe of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber checks into rehab for substance use between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber, his representatives, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Justin Bieber rehab in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Elon baby by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.    

The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Justin Bieber song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant before she announces that she is married to Travis Kelce. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy or marriage announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.

If Taylor Swift does not announce that she is pregnant or married to Travis Kelce by August 31, 2026 ET, or their engagement is otherwise broken off, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be used.

Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?

Justin Bieber is scheduled to perform as the main act at Coachella 2026 on April 11 and April 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber officially announces his withdrawal from, or it is confirmed that he will not be performing at the 2026 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, by April 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Justin Bieber or Coachella (see: https://www.coachella.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?

This market will resolve according to the male name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/.

The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” tool. To view the relevant "Male name" list, set the Birth Year to 2025.

This market may resolve as soon as the SSA releases its 2025 name data for the specified year. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 or if the SSA does not release the 2025 rankings by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?

This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/.

The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” tool. To view the relevant "Female name" list, set the Birth Year to 2025.

This market may resolve as soon as the SSA releases its 2025 name data for the specified year. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 or if the SSA does not release the 2025 rankings by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Beyoncé and/or Jay-Z announce their intention to divorce between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Beyoncé and/or Jay-Z, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Jay-Z & Beyoncé divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce married
- Taylor Swift pregnant
- Taylor Swift mentions Travis Kelce on her new album

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TS.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy convicted?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Britney Spears announces a new tour between December 29, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Britney Spears will go on tour within the stated timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when she actually does so.

The resolution source will be an announcement from Britney Spears or her official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Britney Spears tour in 2025?

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and/or Meghan, Duchess of Sussex announce their intention to divorce between December 30, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Harry and/or Meghan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner are engaged to be married by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Chalamet and Jenner have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Timothée Chalamet and/or Kylie Jenner or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau are engaged to be married by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Perry and Trudeau have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry and/or Justin Trudeau or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Zuckerberg and/or Priscilla Chan announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Mark Zuckerberg and/or Priscilla Chan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Zuckerberg divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public. 

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.

Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rami leaves KPop group Babymonster by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Rami, Babymonster, YG Entertainment, or their official legal or social media representatives announce that Rami will no longer be a part of Babymonster. Such an announcement is sufficient to resolve this market regardless of when the departure takes effect. Only the announcement of a permanent departure will qualify. Hiatus, sabbatical, or other temporary leaves of absence will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be Rami, Babymonster, YG Entertainment, or their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will Rami leave Babymonster?

Bryan Johnson recently made public his relationship with co-founder Kate Tolo (https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1995953490930401334). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bryan Johnson proposes to Kate Tolo by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is definitively determined that Bryan Johnson and Kate Tolo have ended their romantic relationship within the stated timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be photo or video of the proposal, or official statements of Bryan Johnson, Kate Tolo, or their legal representatives, otherwise a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?

The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?

Hannah Cobb, 25, of Keysville as been charged with involuntary manslaughter in the domestic shooting death of her boyfriend (see: https://theaugustapress.com/burke-county-woman-charged-with-involuntary-manslaughter-in-death-of-boyfriend/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hannah Cobb is found guilty of the charge of involuntary manslaughter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Hannah Cobb's trial is dismissed, ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or results in a mistrial for the charge of involuntary manslaughter, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


White girlfriend who shot Black bf guilty? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Bill Belichick is engaged to be married by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Bill Belichick has married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Bill Belichick or one of his representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Bill Belichick engaged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Kardashian receives a passing score on the California Bar Exam by May 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of all California State Bar Exams within this market's timeframe are not known by the specified end date, this market may remain open until May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which, if results remain unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the California State Bar Association, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 

Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff announce their intention to divorce between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

Market Context

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

Rules

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

Market Context

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

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