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Australia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1,905,330 Vol.

May 17, 2025

Labour 81%

Liberal–National 20%

Other <1%

Greens <1%

FebMarApr0%20%40%60%80%

Source: Polymarket.com

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Rules

The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on or before 17 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Australian Labor Party controls the most seats in the Australian House of Representatives
(Australia's lower house) as a result of the next Australian parliamentary election.

If voting in the next Australian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Australian government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.

Volume

$1,905,330

End Date

May 17, 2025

Comments (77)
Top Holders
Activity
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Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

BussyBlaster

BussyBlaster

4d ago

Where is all the liberal NO holders? top holder only has 1400 shares?

BussyBlaster

BussyBlaster

6d ago

massive vote buying policy just dropped

Astera

Astera

6d ago

@BussyBlaster

Well, it's pumped a bit of life into the LNP price at least

GovNerd

6d ago

@Astera

Looking more like a penis pump at this stage. The immediate effect was dramatic, but not sustained.

Megfdsgfsg

10d ago

It's called Labor, not Labour.

afarawayname

11d ago

No matter who wins, AUKUS will continue, American occupiers will remain, immigrants will keep flowing in, and wasteful spending will increase (NDIS in particular)

tristanb

18d ago

Can they fix the colours. And the spelling?

PrecogDan

18d ago

Labor 71, Coalition 67

Astera

Astera

20d ago

Polls are just one metric to look at, but if you consider Newspoll which is one of the biggest around, in the 7 elections it has been reporting 2 party preferred (2PP) since 2004, in all 7 elections the ALP have gone backwards in the 2PP from the first poll taken at the start of the campaign to the final poll by an average of 2 percentage points. If that played out in this election campaign it could have the LNP nearing 53-47 on 2PP and bordering on majority win territory or minority with the need just a few cross benchers.

Dementia.Patient

Labor is the likely winner. Labor is more likely to get any Teal / Leftist independents to back a Labor Government. Also no Government has failed to be re-elected after its 1st term since before the Second World War.

Malllory

Malllory

26d ago

STRANGE THINGS HAPPEN, WHEN YOU’RE GOING AROUND THE TWIST

i0y46zYhgDgK

26d ago

@Malllory

Have you heard the word about the bird and the spider?

BussyBlaster

BussyBlaster

27d ago

idk who will win but i know aussies will lose

i will win

huhhhh

1mo ago

Vote Labor for higher taxes. I LOVE PAYING TAXES!!!!

papertrade

29d ago

@huhhhh

source?

@huhhhh

Every sane person love paying taxes. That makes us different from jungle animals

MostWantedGoy

any australians in here?

SAITEJA

SAITEJA

2mo ago

liberal

This market is a joke. Everybody and their dog knows that TRUMPET OF PATRIOTS will win in an election landslide.

i0y46zYhgDgK

3mo ago

ALP mispriced given 2025 electoral pendulum post distributions and historical average swings

i0y46zYhgDgK

3mo ago

also polymarket misspelled labor

BussyBlaster

BussyBlaster

3mo ago

@i0y46zYhgDgK

OH NO NO NO

Hope a market for parties and seats predictions actually drops, i wouldn't predict on parties considering ties occur, also the resolution for a tie is dumb af, you can't resolve based on alphabetical order

Martinfrogers

This is so bad on rules. I put up an abundantly clear set of rules in discord for the election that is based on who is the next Australian Prime Minister. There is a bunch of independents and greens that will form a government. THAT IS WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO POLLS. This market doesn't resolve to that it resolves to "In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order."

Tulio

3mo ago

What does winning mean? Is it who forms government or who secures the most seats in the house of reps?

Jubulence

3mo ago

Whoever secures the most seats in the house of reps. Has nothing to do with formation of government. That would be a separate market.

Vegemite

3mo ago

calling liberal on this one, fix the price and ill buy in more x

fcgt

3mo ago

oo

BussyBlaster

BussyBlaster

3mo ago

labor has clowned on the australian economy but remember, aussies are largely retarded

retard

automobile

automobile

3mo ago

both partys are commies

albo, its not too late to pull a harold holt!

fcgt

3mo ago

yes

MagaProfit

3mo ago

libs/nationals are going to win easy. Abo has no chance

TDL25

3mo ago

You do realise that we have a preferential voting system right?

MagaProfit

3mo ago

@TDL25

NO SHIT

Market icon

Labour

Amount

$