Apple (AAPL) traders on Polymarket are pricing a 62% implied probability of closing above $225 by March 29, driven primarily by the stock's recent 8% rally from $208 lows amid optimism over AI integration in iOS 18 and robust services revenue growth outpacing hardware slowdowns in China. Current price at $223.50 sits just below the strike, with implied volatility at 25% signaling potential swings from FOMC rate cut expectations on March 20 and Apple's Q2 earnings preview whispers. Historical March closes average +2.5% gains, but antitrust scrutiny and tariff risks cap upside; watch $224 resistance for breakout confirmation ahead of quarter-end positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$258,743 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
94%
$230
94%
$240
80%
$250
47%
$260
18%
$270
6%
$280
8%
$290
2%
$300
2%
$310
2%
$320
2%
$330
1%
$258,743 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
94%
$230
94%
$240
80%
$250
47%
$260
18%
$270
6%
$280
8%
$290
2%
$300
2%
$310
2%
$320
2%
$330
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple (AAPL) traders on Polymarket are pricing a 62% implied probability of closing above $225 by March 29, driven primarily by the stock's recent 8% rally from $208 lows amid optimism over AI integration in iOS 18 and robust services revenue growth outpacing hardware slowdowns in China. Current price at $223.50 sits just below the strike, with implied volatility at 25% signaling potential swings from FOMC rate cut expectations on March 20 and Apple's Q2 earnings preview whispers. Historical March closes average +2.5% gains, but antitrust scrutiny and tariff risks cap upside; watch $224 resistance for breakout confirmation ahead of quarter-end positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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