Robert MacIntyre commands trader consensus at 54.7% implied probability to win the Valero Texas Open, fueled by his commanding four-shot 36-hole lead at 14-under par on the demanding Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio following a blistering second-round 64—the low score of the day with a hot finish including multiple birdies. His elite ball-striking and comfort in Texas winds propelled the surge from co-leader after round one, positioning him as the clear favorite entering the weekend despite the volatility of 36 holes remaining. Ludvig Åberg trails closest at 10-under after a steady 67, justifying his 14.1% share amid strong recent form, while Henry Lebioda (15.8%), A.J. Ewart (13.8%), and J.T. Poston (13.7%) draw support from hot approaches to the lead and solid scrambling stats. Big names like Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood languish further back at 3.9% each after even-par rounds Friday, underscoring the leaderboard shakeup from MacIntyre's dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRobert MacIntyre 54.0%
Michael Kim 24.3%
Ludvig Aberg 14.0%
Kevin Roy 5.5%
$288,167 Vol.
$288,167 Vol.
Robert MacIntyre
54%
Michael Kim
24%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Kevin Roy
5%
Alex Smalley
4%
Tommy Fleetwood
4%
Tony Finau
4%
John Parry
4%
Marco Penge
4%
Ryo Hisatsune
4%
Bud Cauley
18%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Thorbjorn Olesen
3%
Mac Meissner
9%
Jordan L. Smith
2%
Andrew Putnam
2%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
22%
Alexander Noren
17%
J.J. Spaun
20%
Andrew Novak
1%
Zach Bauchou
11%
Adam Schenk
18%
Max McGreevy
1%
Peter Malnati
18%
Hideki Matsuyama
1%
Si Woo Kim
1%
Austin Smotherman
1%
Joe Highsmith
22%
Steven Fisk
1%
Billy Horschel
16%
Denny McCarthy
1%
Eric Cole
17%
Brian Harman
<1%
Stephan Jaeger
23%
Russell Henley
<1%
Matt McCarty
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Austin Eckroat
18%
Kristoffer Reitan
23%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Doug Ghim
<1%
Max Homa
17%
Christo Lamprecht
22%
A.J. Ewart
<1%
Chad Ramey
19%
Marcelo Rozo
<1%
Gordon Sargent
<1%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
<1%
Emiliano Grillo
<1%
Rico Hoey
23%
Charley Hoffman
<1%
Beau Hossler
<1%
Chris Kirk
16%
Luke Clanton
<1%
Mackenzie Hughes
<1%
Chandler Phillips
<1%
Neal Shipley
<1%
Davis Chatfield
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Chandler Blanchet
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Rafael Campos
<1%
Nick Dunlap
<1%
David Ford
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Hao-Tong Li
<1%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Adrien Saddier
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Matthias Schmid
<1%
Brandt Snedeker
<1%
Pierceson Coody
<1%
Ze-Cheng Dou
<1%
Patrick Fishburn
<1%
Garrick Higgo
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Tom Hoge
<1%
Mark Hubbard
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
Jeffrey Kang
<1%
Patton Kizzire
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
Johnny Keefer
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Pontus Nyholm
19%
Matthieu Pavon
<1%
JT Poston
<1%
Seamus Power
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Brice Garnett
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Henry Lebioda
<1%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
<1%
Robert MacIntyre 54.0%
Michael Kim 24.3%
Ludvig Aberg 14.0%
Kevin Roy 5.5%
$288,167 Vol.
$288,167 Vol.
Robert MacIntyre
54%
Michael Kim
24%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Kevin Roy
5%
Alex Smalley
4%
Tommy Fleetwood
4%
Tony Finau
4%
John Parry
4%
Marco Penge
4%
Ryo Hisatsune
4%
Bud Cauley
18%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Thorbjorn Olesen
3%
Mac Meissner
9%
Jordan L. Smith
2%
Andrew Putnam
2%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
22%
Alexander Noren
17%
J.J. Spaun
20%
Andrew Novak
1%
Zach Bauchou
11%
Adam Schenk
18%
Max McGreevy
1%
Peter Malnati
18%
Hideki Matsuyama
1%
Si Woo Kim
1%
Austin Smotherman
1%
Joe Highsmith
22%
Steven Fisk
1%
Billy Horschel
16%
Denny McCarthy
1%
Eric Cole
17%
Brian Harman
<1%
Stephan Jaeger
23%
Russell Henley
<1%
Matt McCarty
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Austin Eckroat
18%
Kristoffer Reitan
23%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Doug Ghim
<1%
Max Homa
17%
Christo Lamprecht
22%
A.J. Ewart
<1%
Chad Ramey
19%
Marcelo Rozo
<1%
Gordon Sargent
<1%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
<1%
Emiliano Grillo
<1%
Rico Hoey
23%
Charley Hoffman
<1%
Beau Hossler
<1%
Chris Kirk
16%
Luke Clanton
<1%
Mackenzie Hughes
<1%
Chandler Phillips
<1%
Neal Shipley
<1%
Davis Chatfield
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Chandler Blanchet
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Rafael Campos
<1%
Nick Dunlap
<1%
David Ford
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Hao-Tong Li
<1%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Adrien Saddier
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Matthias Schmid
<1%
Brandt Snedeker
<1%
Pierceson Coody
<1%
Ze-Cheng Dou
<1%
Patrick Fishburn
<1%
Garrick Higgo
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Tom Hoge
<1%
Mark Hubbard
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
Jeffrey Kang
<1%
Patton Kizzire
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
Johnny Keefer
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Pontus Nyholm
19%
Matthieu Pavon
<1%
JT Poston
<1%
Seamus Power
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Brice Garnett
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Henry Lebioda
<1%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
<1%
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Valero Texas Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the Valero Texas Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by April 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 12:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Valero Texas Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the Valero Texas Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by April 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Robert MacIntyre commands trader consensus at 54.7% implied probability to win the Valero Texas Open, fueled by his commanding four-shot 36-hole lead at 14-under par on the demanding Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio following a blistering second-round 64—the low score of the day with a hot finish including multiple birdies. His elite ball-striking and comfort in Texas winds propelled the surge from co-leader after round one, positioning him as the clear favorite entering the weekend despite the volatility of 36 holes remaining. Ludvig Åberg trails closest at 10-under after a steady 67, justifying his 14.1% share amid strong recent form, while Henry Lebioda (15.8%), A.J. Ewart (13.8%), and J.T. Poston (13.7%) draw support from hot approaches to the lead and solid scrambling stats. Big names like Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood languish further back at 3.9% each after even-par rounds Friday, underscoring the leaderboard shakeup from MacIntyre's dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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