Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability after cruising through UEFA qualifiers atop their group, bolstered by Euro 2024 success and stars like Yamal and Pedri, but the race stays tight with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), Argentina (9.9%), and Brazil (8.6%) clustered closely due to their own flawless qualification paths. March 26 UEFA playoff semis saw France dismantle Luxembourg 4-0 in a friendly tune-up while Brazil fell 1-2 to France, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities, yet no major injuries or upsets disrupted the hierarchy. The December group draw handed tricky paths to England and France, enhancing South American giants' edges in the expanded 48-team format amid generational talents across continents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$404,516,705 Vol.
$404,516,705 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Earn 4%
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$404,516,705 Vol.
$404,516,705 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Earn 4%
Spain
$5,144,834 Vol.
16%
England
$6,432,572 Vol.
13%
France
$4,045,191 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$6,231,450 Vol.
10%
Brazil
$6,354,840 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$7,926,091 Vol.
7%
Germany
$6,659,362 Vol.
5%
Netherlands
$8,585,917 Vol.
3%
Norway
$7,387,825 Vol.
3%
Italy
$7,385,241 Vol.
3%
Belgium
$7,304,816 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$6,859,301 Vol.
2%
USA
$4,448,379 Vol.
2%
Morocco
$8,738,435 Vol.
2%
Japan
$8,484,007 Vol.
1%
Uruguay
$7,212,813 Vol.
1%
Croatia
$7,640,698 Vol.
1%
Mexico
$6,601,683 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$8,670,309 Vol.
1%
Switzerland
$8,048,618 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$8,020,184 Vol.
1%
Canada
$11,280,297 Vol.
1%
Austria
$9,568,066 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$12,920,995 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$10,165,372 Vol.
<1%
Ivory Coast
$8,315,128 Vol.
<1%
Algeria
$9,876,712 Vol.
<1%
Scotland
$10,491,817 Vol.
<1%
Tunisia
$10,407,541 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$7,889,032 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$16,986,132 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$9,754,106 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$11,739,696 Vol.
<1%
Jordan
$15,683,663 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$7,747,922 Vol.
<1%
South Africa
$18,780,238 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$9,773,331 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$10,808,325 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand
$14,942,847 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$12,127,409 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$10,868,452 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistan
$25,946,348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability after cruising through UEFA qualifiers atop their group, bolstered by Euro 2024 success and stars like Yamal and Pedri, but the race stays tight with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), Argentina (9.9%), and Brazil (8.6%) clustered closely due to their own flawless qualification paths. March 26 UEFA playoff semis saw France dismantle Luxembourg 4-0 in a friendly tune-up while Brazil fell 1-2 to France, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities, yet no major injuries or upsets disrupted the hierarchy. The December group draw handed tricky paths to England and France, enhancing South American giants' edges in the expanded 48-team format amid generational talents across continents.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$404,516,705End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability after cruising through UEFA qualifiers atop their group, bolstered by Euro 2024 success and stars like Yamal and Pedri, but the race stays tight with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), Argentina (9.9%), and Brazil (8.6%) clustered closely due to their own flawless qualification paths. March 26 UEFA playoff semis saw France dismantle Luxembourg 4-0 in a friendly tune-up while Brazil fell 1-2 to France, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities, yet no major injuries or upsets disrupted the hierarchy. The December group draw handed tricky paths to England and France, enhancing South American giants' edges in the expanded 48-team format amid generational talents across continents.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$404,516,705End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability after cruising through UEFA qualifiers atop their group, bolstered by Euro 2024 success and stars like Yamal and Pedri, but the race stays tight with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), Argentina (9.9%), and Brazil (8.6%) clustered closely due to their own flawless qualification paths. March 26 UEFA playoff semis saw France dismantle Luxembourg 4-0 in a friendly tune-up while Brazil fell 1-2 to France, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities, yet no major injuries or upsets disrupted the hierarchy. The December group draw handed tricky paths to England and France, enhancing South American giants' edges in the expanded 48-team format amid generational talents across continents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions