Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualifiers—topping their group unbeaten—and a convincing 3-0 friendly win over Serbia on March 27 that highlighted Yamal and Morata's form. England (12.8%) and France (10.9%) remain close behind, reflecting squad depth despite England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay and France's quiet international break, while Argentina (10.0%) leverages defending champion status amid Messi's fitness questions. Brazil (8.6%) lags after uneven CONMEBOL campaign, but the bunched top tier underscores parity in the expanded 48-team draw, with balanced groups, potent European and South American contenders, and knockout volatility keeping paths open through June's group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$402,736,840 Vol.
$402,736,840 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$402,736,840 Vol.
$402,736,840 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualifiers—topping their group unbeaten—and a convincing 3-0 friendly win over Serbia on March 27 that highlighted Yamal and Morata's form. England (12.8%) and France (10.9%) remain close behind, reflecting squad depth despite England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay and France's quiet international break, while Argentina (10.0%) leverages defending champion status amid Messi's fitness questions. Brazil (8.6%) lags after uneven CONMEBOL campaign, but the bunched top tier underscores parity in the expanded 48-team draw, with balanced groups, potent European and South American contenders, and knockout volatility keeping paths open through June's group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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