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Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain 16.4%

France 12.4%

England 12.3%

Argentina 9.3%

Polymarket

$453,064,151 Vol.

Spain 16.4%

France 12.4%

England 12.3%

Argentina 9.3%

Polymarket

$453,064,151 Vol.

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Spain

$6,421,102 Vol.

16%

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France

$5,144,214 Vol.

12%

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England

$7,234,938 Vol.

12%

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Argentina

$7,309,687 Vol.

9%

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Brazil

$6,807,196 Vol.

9%

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Portugal

$8,425,042 Vol.

7%

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Germany

$6,985,942 Vol.

5%

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Netherlands

$9,338,816 Vol.

3%

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Norway

$7,547,888 Vol.

3%

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Belgium

$7,684,704 Vol.

2%

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Colombia

$7,156,948 Vol.

2%

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Japan

$9,107,018 Vol.

2%

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USA

$4,734,441 Vol.

2%

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Morocco

$9,004,467 Vol.

2%

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Switzerland

$8,681,262 Vol.

1%

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Uruguay

$7,582,443 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$7,982,364 Vol.

1%

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Mexico

$6,791,402 Vol.

1%

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Ecuador

$9,034,184 Vol.

1%

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Senegal

$8,319,133 Vol.

1%

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Sweden

$311,111 Vol.

1%

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Canada

$11,888,877 Vol.

1%

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Austria

$10,509,366 Vol.

1%

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South Korea

$13,635,921 Vol.

<1%

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Paraguay

$11,791,730 Vol.

<1%

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Ivory Coast

$9,179,429 Vol.

<1%

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Egypt

$10,779,784 Vol.

<1%

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Ghana

$10,347,689 Vol.

<1%

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Algeria

$11,120,194 Vol.

<1%

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Scotland

$11,207,852 Vol.

<1%

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Tunisia

$11,307,012 Vol.

<1%

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Australia

$8,269,611 Vol.

<1%

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Saudi Arabia

$17,687,422 Vol.

<1%

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Haiti

$12,589,720 Vol.

<1%

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Jordan

$16,619,877 Vol.

<1%

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Iran

$11,703,946 Vol.

<1%

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Panama

$1,588,652 Vol.

<1%

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South Africa

$19,591,328 Vol.

<1%

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Cape Verde

$10,614,661 Vol.

<1%

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Qatar

$13,514,358 Vol.

<1%

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New Zealand

$16,973,895 Vol.

<1%

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Curaçao

$23,989,702 Vol.

<1%

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Uzbekistan

$27,626,180 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, a 31-match unbeaten streak (25 wins, 6 draws), and unmatched squad depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Nico Williams under Luis de la Fuente. March qualifiers concluded with Spain topping Group E for direct qualification alongside France, England, and others, solidifying their momentum amid FIFA president Gianni Infantino naming them favorites. Yet France (12.4%), England (12.3%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%) remain tightly bunched due to star power (Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, Vinícius Jr.), recent qualifier dominance, and the expanded 48-team format's knockout volatility, keeping the race wide-open two months out.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$453,064,151
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, a 31-match unbeaten streak (25 wins, 6 draws), and unmatched squad depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Nico Williams under Luis de la Fuente. March qualifiers concluded with Spain topping Group E for direct qualification alongside France, England, and others, solidifying their momentum amid FIFA president Gianni Infantino naming them favorites. Yet France (12.4%), England (12.3%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%) remain tightly bunched due to star power (Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, Vinícius Jr.), recent qualifier dominance, and the expanded 48-team format's knockout volatility, keeping the race wide-open two months out.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$453,064,151
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 45+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 16%, followed by "France" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " has generated $453.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner ," browse the 45+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is "Spain" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.