Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign (five wins, one draw) capped by dominant March results like England's 5-0 rout of Latvia, alongside their Euro 2024 triumph and golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal. The race remains tightly contested among England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%), as all Pot 1 seeds qualified comfortably post-December group draw, but Brazil faces headwinds from Rodrygo's ACL injury and absences like Alisson and Gabriel. With the 48-team expanded format introducing deeper fields and upset potential, recent friendlies and fitness concerns underscore the competitive parity ahead of the North American-hosted tournament.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.1%
$401,159,044 Vol.
$401,159,044 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.1%
$401,159,044 Vol.
$401,159,044 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign (five wins, one draw) capped by dominant March results like England's 5-0 rout of Latvia, alongside their Euro 2024 triumph and golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal. The race remains tightly contested among England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%), as all Pot 1 seeds qualified comfortably post-December group draw, but Brazil faces headwinds from Rodrygo's ACL injury and absences like Alisson and Gabriel. With the 48-team expanded format introducing deeper fields and upset potential, recent friendlies and fitness concerns underscore the competitive parity ahead of the North American-hosted tournament.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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