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Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

$1,999,967 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026
Polymarket

$1,999,967 Vol.

Polymarket

Iraq

$8,526 Vol.

100%

Bolivia

$18,667 Vol.

<1%

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).The 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification wrapped up on March 31 as DR Congo clinched their debut berth with a 1-0 extra-time win over Jamaica, and Iraq edged Bolivia 2-1 in the inter-confederation play-off finals hosted in Mexico, finalizing the 48-team field. UEFA filled all 16 spots, highlighted by recent play-off triumphs for Bosnia and Herzegovina (penalties over Italy), Sweden (3-2 vs. Poland), Türkiye (1-0 vs. Kosovo), and Czechia (penalties vs. Denmark). CONMEBOL's top six—Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay—advanced directly, while AFC (nine teams including Jordan, Uzbekistan), CAF (ten like Cape Verde debutants), CONCACAF (hosts plus Curaçao, Haiti, Panama), and OFC's New Zealand rounded out the roster. With Curaçao as the smallest nation ever to qualify, attention now shifts to the final draw and group stage preparations.

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).
Volume
$1,999,967
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2025, 8:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).The 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification wrapped up on March 31 as DR Congo clinched their debut berth with a 1-0 extra-time win over Jamaica, and Iraq edged Bolivia 2-1 in the inter-confederation play-off finals hosted in Mexico, finalizing the 48-team field. UEFA filled all 16 spots, highlighted by recent play-off triumphs for Bosnia and Herzegovina (penalties over Italy), Sweden (3-2 vs. Poland), Türkiye (1-0 vs. Kosovo), and Czechia (penalties vs. Denmark). CONMEBOL's top six—Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay—advanced directly, while AFC (nine teams including Jordan, Uzbekistan), CAF (ten like Cape Verde debutants), CONCACAF (hosts plus Curaçao, Haiti, Panama), and OFC's New Zealand rounded out the roster. With Curaçao as the smallest nation ever to qualify, attention now shifts to the final draw and group stage preparations.

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).
Volume
$1,999,967
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2025, 8:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iraq" at 100%, followed by "Netherlands" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is "Iraq" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Netherlands" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.