Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty over Claude's reliability, with 42% implying 12+ downtime days in April and 40.5% for 9-11, driven by a persistent outage pattern straining Anthropic's infrastructure amid surging demand for its flagship large language models like Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6. Elevated API errors and timeouts hit on April 1 (multiple incidents totaling over 14 hours) and April 3 (~1 hour), extending late-March woes that saw disruptions nearly every other day due to capacity limits and traffic spikes. Competitive pressure from OpenAI exacerbates scaling challenges, but resolutions have been swift; key swing factors include Anthropic's compute expansions or postmortems, with the remaining 26 days pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWill Claude go down on __ days in April?
Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
9-11 42%
12+ 42%
6-8 12%
3-5 3.5%
$30,108 Vol.
$30,108 Vol.
30 abr 2026
0-2
<1%
3-5
4%
6-8
12%
9-11
42%
12+
42%
9-11 42%
12+ 42%
6-8 12%
3-5 3.5%
$30,108 Vol.
$30,108 Vol.
30 abr 2026
0-2
$11,017 Vol.
<1%
3-5
$1,884 Vol.
4%
6-8
$4,866 Vol.
12%
9-11
$5,053 Vol.
42%
12+
$7,289 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty over Claude's reliability, with 42% implying 12+ downtime days in April and 40.5% for 9-11, driven by a persistent outage pattern straining Anthropic's infrastructure amid surging demand for its flagship large language models like Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6. Elevated API errors and timeouts hit on April 1 (multiple incidents totaling over 14 hours) and April 3 (~1 hour), extending late-March woes that saw disruptions nearly every other day due to capacity limits and traffic spikes. Competitive pressure from OpenAI exacerbates scaling challenges, but resolutions have been swift; key swing factors include Anthropic's compute expansions or postmortems, with the remaining 26 days pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volumen
$30,108Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty over Claude's reliability, with 42% implying 12+ downtime days in April and 40.5% for 9-11, driven by a persistent outage pattern straining Anthropic's infrastructure amid surging demand for its flagship large language models like Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6. Elevated API errors and timeouts hit on April 1 (multiple incidents totaling over 14 hours) and April 3 (~1 hour), extending late-March woes that saw disruptions nearly every other day due to capacity limits and traffic spikes. Competitive pressure from OpenAI exacerbates scaling challenges, but resolutions have been swift; key swing factors include Anthropic's compute expansions or postmortems, with the remaining 26 days pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$30,108Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty over Claude's reliability, with 42% implying 12+ downtime days in April and 40.5% for 9-11, driven by a persistent outage pattern straining Anthropic's infrastructure amid surging demand for its flagship large language models like Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6. Elevated API errors and timeouts hit on April 1 (multiple incidents totaling over 14 hours) and April 3 (~1 hour), extending late-March woes that saw disruptions nearly every other day due to capacity limits and traffic spikes. Competitive pressure from OpenAI exacerbates scaling challenges, but resolutions have been swift; key swing factors include Anthropic's compute expansions or postmortems, with the remaining 26 days pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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