Tesla traders are closely split on Q2 2026 deliveries, with market-implied odds favoring 475k+ vehicles at 29.5% amid robust April sales rebounds—China wholesale up 36% year-over-year to 79k Model 3/Y units despite high exports, and Europe surging (Germany +256% to 3k registrations, France +112%). This follows Q1's 358k miss tied to production bottlenecks and Model S/X phaseout, now offset by Cybercab production starting at Giga Texas. Key swing factors include Chinese rivals like BYD and Xiaomi undercutting on price in retail sales, U.S. demand softness, and battery cell limits, versus Tesla's autonomy edge via FSD expansions and Robotaxi pilots. Q2 wraps June 30, with report early July.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado475k+ 34.3%
450k–475k 23.2%
375k–400k 22%
425k–450k 13%
$41,666 Vol.
$41,666 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<300k
8%
300k–325k
1%
325k–350k
3%
350k–375k
15%
375k–400k
22%
400k–425k
17%
425k–450k
13%
450k–475k
23%
475k+
30%
475k+ 34.3%
450k–475k 23.2%
375k–400k 22%
425k–450k 13%
$41,666 Vol.
$41,666 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<300k
$5,209 Vol.
8%
300k–325k
$3,033 Vol.
1%
325k–350k
$3,129 Vol.
3%
350k–375k
$7,488 Vol.
15%
375k–400k
$3,863 Vol.
22%
400k–425k
$8,221 Vol.
17%
425k–450k
$4,102 Vol.
13%
450k–475k
$3,202 Vol.
23%
475k+
$3,419 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla traders are closely split on Q2 2026 deliveries, with market-implied odds favoring 475k+ vehicles at 29.5% amid robust April sales rebounds—China wholesale up 36% year-over-year to 79k Model 3/Y units despite high exports, and Europe surging (Germany +256% to 3k registrations, France +112%). This follows Q1's 358k miss tied to production bottlenecks and Model S/X phaseout, now offset by Cybercab production starting at Giga Texas. Key swing factors include Chinese rivals like BYD and Xiaomi undercutting on price in retail sales, U.S. demand softness, and battery cell limits, versus Tesla's autonomy edge via FSD expansions and Robotaxi pilots. Q2 wraps June 30, with report early July.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Volumen
$41,666Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla traders are closely split on Q2 2026 deliveries, with market-implied odds favoring 475k+ vehicles at 29.5% amid robust April sales rebounds—China wholesale up 36% year-over-year to 79k Model 3/Y units despite high exports, and Europe surging (Germany +256% to 3k registrations, France +112%). This follows Q1's 358k miss tied to production bottlenecks and Model S/X phaseout, now offset by Cybercab production starting at Giga Texas. Key swing factors include Chinese rivals like BYD and Xiaomi undercutting on price in retail sales, U.S. demand softness, and battery cell limits, versus Tesla's autonomy edge via FSD expansions and Robotaxi pilots. Q2 wraps June 30, with report early July.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volumen
$41,666Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla traders are closely split on Q2 2026 deliveries, with market-implied odds favoring 475k+ vehicles at 29.5% amid robust April sales rebounds—China wholesale up 36% year-over-year to 79k Model 3/Y units despite high exports, and Europe surging (Germany +256% to 3k registrations, France +112%). This follows Q1's 358k miss tied to production bottlenecks and Model S/X phaseout, now offset by Cybercab production starting at Giga Texas. Key swing factors include Chinese rivals like BYD and Xiaomi undercutting on price in retail sales, U.S. demand softness, and battery cell limits, versus Tesla's autonomy edge via FSD expansions and Robotaxi pilots. Q2 wraps June 30, with report early July.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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