Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado375k–400k 33%
400k–425k 23%
350k–375k 20%
425k–450k 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<300k
14%
300k–325k
13%
325k–350k
17%
350k–375k
20%
375k–400k
33%
400k–425k
23%
425k–450k
18%
450k–475k
13%
475k+
13%
375k–400k 33%
400k–425k 23%
350k–375k 20%
425k–450k 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<300k
$0 Vol.
14%
300k–325k
$0 Vol.
13%
325k–350k
$4 Vol.
17%
350k–375k
$0 Vol.
20%
375k–400k
$0 Vol.
33%
400k–425k
$0 Vol.
23%
425k–450k
$2 Vol.
18%
450k–475k
$0 Vol.
13%
475k+
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Volumen
$6Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volumen
$6Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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