Alberta separatists announced on March 31 that their citizen initiative petition—"A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence"—has exceeded the 177,732-signature threshold needed to compel a provincial vote on secession, with collection continuing until May 2 and Premier Danielle Smith pledging to schedule it, potentially alongside the government's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty questions like prioritizing provincial laws over federal ones, immigration controls, and senate abolition. This milestone, amid federal-provincial tensions over equalization payments, energy policy, and population growth straining services, has driven trader consensus to 68.5% implied probability for scheduling before 2027, despite polls showing only 25-30% support for leaving Canada and legal hurdles under the Clarity Act requiring negotiations with Ottawa and Indigenous nations if it advances. Quebec's Parti Québécois election pledge for a post-2026 vote adds secondary pressure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$183,416 Vol.
$183,416 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$183,416 Vol.
$183,416 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists announced on March 31 that their citizen initiative petition—"A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence"—has exceeded the 177,732-signature threshold needed to compel a provincial vote on secession, with collection continuing until May 2 and Premier Danielle Smith pledging to schedule it, potentially alongside the government's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty questions like prioritizing provincial laws over federal ones, immigration controls, and senate abolition. This milestone, amid federal-provincial tensions over equalization payments, energy policy, and population growth straining services, has driven trader consensus to 68.5% implied probability for scheduling before 2027, despite polls showing only 25-30% support for leaving Canada and legal hurdles under the Clarity Act requiring negotiations with Ottawa and Indigenous nations if it advances. Quebec's Parti Québécois election pledge for a post-2026 vote adds secondary pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$183,416Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists announced on March 31 that their citizen initiative petition—"A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence"—has exceeded the 177,732-signature threshold needed to compel a provincial vote on secession, with collection continuing until May 2 and Premier Danielle Smith pledging to schedule it, potentially alongside the government's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty questions like prioritizing provincial laws over federal ones, immigration controls, and senate abolition. This milestone, amid federal-provincial tensions over equalization payments, energy policy, and population growth straining services, has driven trader consensus to 68.5% implied probability for scheduling before 2027, despite polls showing only 25-30% support for leaving Canada and legal hurdles under the Clarity Act requiring negotiations with Ottawa and Indigenous nations if it advances. Quebec's Parti Québécois election pledge for a post-2026 vote adds secondary pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$183,448Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta separatists announced on March 31 that their citizen initiative petition—"A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence"—has exceeded the 177,732-signature threshold needed to compel a provincial vote on secession, with collection continuing until May 2 and Premier Danielle Smith pledging to schedule it, potentially alongside the government's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty questions like prioritizing provincial laws over federal ones, immigration controls, and senate abolition. This milestone, amid federal-provincial tensions over equalization payments, energy policy, and population growth straining services, has driven trader consensus to 68.5% implied probability for scheduling before 2027, despite polls showing only 25-30% support for leaving Canada and legal hurdles under the Clarity Act requiring negotiations with Ottawa and Indigenous nations if it advances. Quebec's Parti Québécois election pledge for a post-2026 vote adds secondary pressure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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