Recent weak Canadian employment data, with September jobs falling sharply and unemployment rising to 6.5%, has reduced Bank of Canada rate-hike odds and widened the policy gap with the Federal Reserve, whose target range stands at 3.75-4.00% after the September increase. This divergence, alongside resilient U.S. yields near 5.3% on the 10-year Treasury, supports USD/CAD near 1.425-1.43 as of early October, levels last seen in April 2025. Elevated oil prices near $91 per barrel provide some counter-support for the loonie, while Canada-U.S. trade tensions add downside risks to Canadian growth. Key near-term catalysts include the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions on October 28, plus U.S. midterm elections that could influence tariff and fiscal expectations.