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Política·Primarias

VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas

Market icon
Política·Primarias

VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas

Elaine Luria 82%

James Osyf 8.8%

Matt Strickler 4.3%

Nicolaus Sleister 3.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Elaine Luria 82%

James Osyf 8.8%

Matt Strickler 4.3%

Nicolaus Sleister 3.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Elaine Luria

$0 Vol.

82%

James Osyf

$1,053 Vol.

9%

Matt Strickler

$0 Vol.

4%

Nicolaus Sleister

$0 Vol.

3%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 Vol.

3%

Patrick Mosolf

$0 Vol.

3%

Nila Devanath

$779 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Elaine Luria" con 82%, seguido de "James Osyf" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 82¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 82% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Nov 25, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas" es "Elaine Luria" con 82%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 82% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "James Osyf" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "VA-02 Ganador de las primarias demócratas" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.