Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, as the frontrunner at 42.5% implied probability for next CEO, propelled by January 2026 reports of his expanded role into design oversight—a critical function blending hardware and industrial design amid Apple's AI hardware push. Bloomberg's March profile further solidified his status, highlighting his 25-year tenure, keynote visibility, and mentorship under Tim Cook, whose succession planning accelerated in late 2025. Sabih Khan (15%) gains from supply chain resilience during global disruptions, while Greg Joswiak (13.5%) and Craig Federighi (9.3%) trail due to marketing and software strengths but lack recent leadership signals. No official timeline exists, with Cook recently dismissing 2026 retirement rumors; watch upcoming earnings for clues.