Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year at ≥3.4%, with 3.3% next at 30.3%, reflecting heightened reacceleration risks from surging oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, which pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel and threatens the energy component. February CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY as expected, but hotter-than-forecast PPI rose 3.4% YoY—the largest advance in a year—signaling upstream pressures, while the Cleveland Fed's March 30 nowcast points to 3.16% headline CPI YoY. The FOMC's March 18 upward revision to 2.7% 2026 PCE inflation further tempers rate-cut hopes ahead of the April 10 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado≥3,4% 47.0%
3,3% 30.3%
3,2% 14%
3,1% 3.3%
$840,049 Vol.
$840,049 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.6%
1%
2,7%
1%
2,8%
1%
2,9%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,1%
3%
3,2%
14%
3,3%
30%
≥3,4%
47%
≥3,4% 47.0%
3,3% 30.3%
3,2% 14%
3,1% 3.3%
$840,049 Vol.
$840,049 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.6%
$102,691 Vol.
1%
2,7%
$102,221 Vol.
1%
2,8%
$46,336 Vol.
1%
2,9%
$44,194 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$48,075 Vol.
1%
3,1%
$67,781 Vol.
3%
3,2%
$43,076 Vol.
14%
3,3%
$162,908 Vol.
30%
≥3,4%
$222,767 Vol.
47%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year at ≥3.4%, with 3.3% next at 30.3%, reflecting heightened reacceleration risks from surging oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, which pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel and threatens the energy component. February CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY as expected, but hotter-than-forecast PPI rose 3.4% YoY—the largest advance in a year—signaling upstream pressures, while the Cleveland Fed's March 30 nowcast points to 3.16% headline CPI YoY. The FOMC's March 18 upward revision to 2.7% 2026 PCE inflation further tempers rate-cut hopes ahead of the April 10 release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Volumen
$840,049Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year at ≥3.4%, with 3.3% next at 30.3%, reflecting heightened reacceleration risks from surging oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, which pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel and threatens the energy component. February CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY as expected, but hotter-than-forecast PPI rose 3.4% YoY—the largest advance in a year—signaling upstream pressures, while the Cleveland Fed's March 30 nowcast points to 3.16% headline CPI YoY. The FOMC's March 18 upward revision to 2.7% 2026 PCE inflation further tempers rate-cut hopes ahead of the April 10 release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$840,049Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year at ≥3.4%, with 3.3% next at 30.3%, reflecting heightened reacceleration risks from surging oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, which pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel and threatens the energy component. February CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY as expected, but hotter-than-forecast PPI rose 3.4% YoY—the largest advance in a year—signaling upstream pressures, while the Cleveland Fed's March 30 nowcast points to 3.16% headline CPI YoY. The FOMC's March 18 upward revision to 2.7% 2026 PCE inflation further tempers rate-cut hopes ahead of the April 10 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes