Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by reports just three days ago indicating an imminent confidential filing this week for a mid-year debut targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and over $75 billion raise. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI—valuing the AI startup at $250 billion—which bolsters its pitch around Starlink's satellite broadband dominance, reusable rocket leadership, and emerging orbital data center synergies with xAI's large language models. xAI lingers at 25.5% due to merger overlap and some bets on rebranded attribution, while OpenAI and Anthropic hover at 4% each amid their Q4 preparations at sub-$400 billion scales. Watch for filing confirmation and SEC review timelines amid potential delays from regulatory scrutiny on space-AI convergence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 4.0%
Waymo <1%
$1,611,129 Vol.
$1,611,129 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Waymo
1%
Kraken
1%
Discord
1%
Databricks
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 4.0%
Waymo <1%
$1,611,129 Vol.
$1,611,129 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$177,809 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,225 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,806 Vol.
4%
Waymo
$43,362 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$371,637 Vol.
1%
Discord
$66,988 Vol.
1%
Databricks
$66,564 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$83,629 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$36,856 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,293 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,568 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,392 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by reports just three days ago indicating an imminent confidential filing this week for a mid-year debut targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and over $75 billion raise. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI—valuing the AI startup at $250 billion—which bolsters its pitch around Starlink's satellite broadband dominance, reusable rocket leadership, and emerging orbital data center synergies with xAI's large language models. xAI lingers at 25.5% due to merger overlap and some bets on rebranded attribution, while OpenAI and Anthropic hover at 4% each amid their Q4 preparations at sub-$400 billion scales. Watch for filing confirmation and SEC review timelines amid potential delays from regulatory scrutiny on space-AI convergence.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,611,129Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by reports just three days ago indicating an imminent confidential filing this week for a mid-year debut targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and over $75 billion raise. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI—valuing the AI startup at $250 billion—which bolsters its pitch around Starlink's satellite broadband dominance, reusable rocket leadership, and emerging orbital data center synergies with xAI's large language models. xAI lingers at 25.5% due to merger overlap and some bets on rebranded attribution, while OpenAI and Anthropic hover at 4% each amid their Q4 preparations at sub-$400 billion scales. Watch for filing confirmation and SEC review timelines amid potential delays from regulatory scrutiny on space-AI convergence.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,611,129Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by reports just three days ago indicating an imminent confidential filing this week for a mid-year debut targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and over $75 billion raise. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI—valuing the AI startup at $250 billion—which bolsters its pitch around Starlink's satellite broadband dominance, reusable rocket leadership, and emerging orbital data center synergies with xAI's large language models. xAI lingers at 25.5% due to merger overlap and some bets on rebranded attribution, while OpenAI and Anthropic hover at 4% each amid their Q4 preparations at sub-$400 billion scales. Watch for filing confirmation and SEC review timelines amid potential delays from regulatory scrutiny on space-AI convergence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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