Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports this week that the company aims to file its prospectus with regulators imminently, targeting a mid-June listing that could raise $40-80 billion at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the biggest ever. The February acquisition of xAI has supercharged this positioning, integrating advanced AI capabilities with SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and Starship launch dominance, propelling its private valuation past $1.25 trillion amid booming orbital compute demand. xAI retains 25.5% odds as some traders bet on a carve-out or rebranding, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) lag due to less concrete timelines despite their large language model prowess. Watch for SEC filings and April investor roadshows, though Musk's history introduces execution risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Discord <1%
$1,615,254 Vol.
$1,615,254 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Discord
1%
Stripe
1%
Waymo
1%
Kraken
<1%
Databricks
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Discord <1%
$1,615,254 Vol.
$1,615,254 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$178,264 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,526 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,970 Vol.
4%
Discord
$67,324 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$37,223 Vol.
1%
Waymo
$43,847 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$371,925 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$67,115 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$83,907 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,616 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,905 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,692 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports this week that the company aims to file its prospectus with regulators imminently, targeting a mid-June listing that could raise $40-80 billion at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the biggest ever. The February acquisition of xAI has supercharged this positioning, integrating advanced AI capabilities with SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and Starship launch dominance, propelling its private valuation past $1.25 trillion amid booming orbital compute demand. xAI retains 25.5% odds as some traders bet on a carve-out or rebranding, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) lag due to less concrete timelines despite their large language model prowess. Watch for SEC filings and April investor roadshows, though Musk's history introduces execution risks.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,615,254Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports this week that the company aims to file its prospectus with regulators imminently, targeting a mid-June listing that could raise $40-80 billion at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the biggest ever. The February acquisition of xAI has supercharged this positioning, integrating advanced AI capabilities with SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and Starship launch dominance, propelling its private valuation past $1.25 trillion amid booming orbital compute demand. xAI retains 25.5% odds as some traders bet on a carve-out or rebranding, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) lag due to less concrete timelines despite their large language model prowess. Watch for SEC filings and April investor roadshows, though Musk's history introduces execution risks.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,615,254Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports this week that the company aims to file its prospectus with regulators imminently, targeting a mid-June listing that could raise $40-80 billion at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the biggest ever. The February acquisition of xAI has supercharged this positioning, integrating advanced AI capabilities with SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and Starship launch dominance, propelling its private valuation past $1.25 trillion amid booming orbital compute demand. xAI retains 25.5% odds as some traders bet on a carve-out or rebranding, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) lag due to less concrete timelines despite their large language model prowess. Watch for SEC filings and April investor roadshows, though Musk's history introduces execution risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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