Tesla's publication of a company-compiled analyst consensus estimating 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3/Y at 351,179 units—has anchored trader sentiment, positioning the 350k–375k outcome at 70% implied probability as the clear leader on Polymarket. This figure reflects an 8.6% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 336,681 but a 12.5% sequential drop from Q4 2025's 418,227, driven by seasonal factory retooling for Model Y updates, softening EV demand amid competition, and inventory adjustments. The 27% odds for under 350k capture downside risks from supply chain hiccups or weaker end-of-quarter push, with official numbers due early April potentially swaying final resolution amid Tesla's ongoing production ramps for Cybertruck and energy storage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado350k–375k 70%
<350k 27%
375k–400k 3.7%
400k–425k <1%
$781,252 Vol.
$781,252 Vol.
<350k
27%
350k–375k
70%
375k–400k
4%
400k–425k
<1%
425k–450k
<1%
450k–475k
<1%
475k–500k
<1%
500k+
<1%
350k–375k 70%
<350k 27%
375k–400k 3.7%
400k–425k <1%
$781,252 Vol.
$781,252 Vol.
<350k
27%
350k–375k
70%
375k–400k
4%
400k–425k
<1%
425k–450k
<1%
450k–475k
<1%
475k–500k
<1%
500k+
<1%
If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tesla's publication of a company-compiled analyst consensus estimating 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3/Y at 351,179 units—has anchored trader sentiment, positioning the 350k–375k outcome at 70% implied probability as the clear leader on Polymarket. This figure reflects an 8.6% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 336,681 but a 12.5% sequential drop from Q4 2025's 418,227, driven by seasonal factory retooling for Model Y updates, softening EV demand amid competition, and inventory adjustments. The 27% odds for under 350k capture downside risks from supply chain hiccups or weaker end-of-quarter push, with official numbers due early April potentially swaying final resolution amid Tesla's ongoing production ramps for Cybertruck and energy storage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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