SpaceX's blistering first-quarter launch cadence of 40 missions as of early April—annualizing to over 160 Falcon 9 and potential Starship flights—drives trader consensus toward 140-179 totals, with 160-179 edging out at 34% implied probability amid sustained reusability records, including boosters on their 30+ flights and back-to-back coast-to-coast operations like the March 30 Transporter-16 and Starlink deployments. Surging Starlink constellation demand, now exceeding 10 million subscribers, fuels this pace, but uncertainty lingers over sustaining sub-three-day turnarounds versus FAA licensing delays or Starship test setbacks, which could add 10-20 orbital flights if Block 2 prototypes accelerate. Historical ramp-up from 167 missions in 2025 underscores feasibility, with next Flight Test updates pivotal for upside.