Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper-70s highs in Dallas on March 18, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF projecting peaks of 76-79°F amid a building upper-level ridge over Texas. This setup promotes warm southerly low-level winds and strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies, per recent GOES satellite imagery showing reduced cloud cover. Differentiating the top bins, GFS runs emphasize deeper boundary-layer mixing for 78-79°F (26.5% implied odds), while ECMWF's moister mid-levels suggest slightly cooler 76-77°F (25.5%); 74-75°F (22.5%) reflects potential northerly wind shifts in outlier scenarios. Historical March 18 averages hover near 67°F, but anomalously warm recent springs add upside risk, with final NWS updates key before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 18?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 18?
78-79°F 27%
76-77°F 26%
74-75°F 22%
80-81°F 14%
$39,294 Vol.
$39,294 Vol.
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
14%
82°F or higher
5%
78-79°F 27%
76-77°F 26%
74-75°F 22%
80-81°F 14%
$39,294 Vol.
$39,294 Vol.
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
14%
82°F or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 14, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper-70s highs in Dallas on March 18, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF projecting peaks of 76-79°F amid a building upper-level ridge over Texas. This setup promotes warm southerly low-level winds and strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies, per recent GOES satellite imagery showing reduced cloud cover. Differentiating the top bins, GFS runs emphasize deeper boundary-layer mixing for 78-79°F (26.5% implied odds), while ECMWF's moister mid-levels suggest slightly cooler 76-77°F (25.5%); 74-75°F (22.5%) reflects potential northerly wind shifts in outlier scenarios. Historical March 18 averages hover near 67°F, but anomalously warm recent springs add upside risk, with final NWS updates key before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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