Recent Vote HQ polling showing Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas leading by 11% has driven trader consensus to price him at 41% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election, triggered by Catherine Connolly's election as President and scheduled for late May. The first such survey underscores his strong local profile as a long-serving Galway County Council member amid anti-establishment sentiment. A "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced this week among six candidates—Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (15.5%), PBP-Solidarity's Denman Rooke (14%), Labour's Helen Ogbu, Soc Dems' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and independent Sheila Garrity—aims to consolidate progressive transfers under Ireland's PR-STV system, elevating their odds. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could introduce a new contender, while Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and independents like Thomas Welby and mayor Mike Cubbard trail.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
Noel Thomas 47%
Mark Lohan 16%
Denman Rooke 14%
Orla Nugent 11.8%
$19,898 Vol.
$19,898 Vol.
Sheila Garrity
6%
Seán Kyne
11%
Niall Murphy
4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
11%
Orla Nugent
12%
Helen Ogbu
11%
Denman Rooke
14%
Noel Thomas
40%
Thomas Welby
11%
Mike Cubbard
7%
Mark Lohan
16%
Noel Thomas 47%
Mark Lohan 16%
Denman Rooke 14%
Orla Nugent 11.8%
$19,898 Vol.
$19,898 Vol.
Sheila Garrity
6%
Seán Kyne
11%
Niall Murphy
4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
11%
Orla Nugent
12%
Helen Ogbu
11%
Denman Rooke
14%
Noel Thomas
40%
Thomas Welby
11%
Mike Cubbard
7%
Mark Lohan
16%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Vote HQ polling showing Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas leading by 11% has driven trader consensus to price him at 41% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election, triggered by Catherine Connolly's election as President and scheduled for late May. The first such survey underscores his strong local profile as a long-serving Galway County Council member amid anti-establishment sentiment. A "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced this week among six candidates—Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (15.5%), PBP-Solidarity's Denman Rooke (14%), Labour's Helen Ogbu, Soc Dems' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and independent Sheila Garrity—aims to consolidate progressive transfers under Ireland's PR-STV system, elevating their odds. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could introduce a new contender, while Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and independents like Thomas Welby and mayor Mike Cubbard trail.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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