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Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

Market icon
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

Noel Thomas 47%

Mark Lohan 16%

Denman Rooke 14%

Orla Nugent 11.8%

Polymarket

$19,898 Vol.

Noel Thomas 47%

Mark Lohan 16%

Denman Rooke 14%

Orla Nugent 11.8%

Polymarket

$19,898 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$18,469 Vol.

6%

Seán Kyne

$124 Vol.

11%

Niall Murphy

$97 Vol.

4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$97 Vol.

11%

Orla Nugent

$103 Vol.

12%

Helen Ogbu

$388 Vol.

11%

Denman Rooke

$58 Vol.

14%

Noel Thomas

$283 Vol.

40%

Thomas Welby

$87 Vol.

11%

Mike Cubbard

$58 Vol.

7%

Mark Lohan

$134 Vol.

16%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent Vote HQ polling showing Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas leading by 11% has driven trader consensus to price him at 41% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election, triggered by Catherine Connolly's election as President and scheduled for late May. The first such survey underscores his strong local profile as a long-serving Galway County Council member amid anti-establishment sentiment. A "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced this week among six candidates—Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (15.5%), PBP-Solidarity's Denman Rooke (14%), Labour's Helen Ogbu, Soc Dems' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and independent Sheila Garrity—aims to consolidate progressive transfers under Ireland's PR-STV system, elevating their odds. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could introduce a new contender, while Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and independents like Thomas Welby and mayor Mike Cubbard trail.

Recent Vote HQ polling showing Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas leading by 11% has driven trader consensus to price him at 41% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election, triggered by Catherine Connolly's election as President and scheduled for late May. The first such survey underscores his strong local profile as a long-serving Galway County Council member amid anti-establishment sentiment. A "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced this week among six candidates—Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (15.5%), PBP-Solidarity's Denman Rooke (14%), Labour's Helen Ogbu, Soc Dems' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and independent Sheila Garrity—aims to consolidate progressive transfers under Ireland's PR-STV system, elevating their odds. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could introduce a new contender, while Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and independents like Thomas Welby and mayor Mike Cubbard trail.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent Vote HQ polling showing Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas leading by 11% has driven trader consensus to price him at 41% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election, triggered by Catherine Connolly's election as President and scheduled for late May. The first such survey underscores his strong local profile as a long-serving Galway County Council member amid anti-establishment sentiment. A "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced this week among six candidates—Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (15.5%), PBP-Solidarity's Denman Rooke (14%), Labour's Helen Ogbu, Soc Dems' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and independent Sheila Garrity—aims to consolidate progressive transfers under Ireland's PR-STV system, elevating their odds. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could introduce a new contender, while Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and independents like Thomas Welby and mayor Mike Cubbard trail.

Recent Vote HQ polling showing Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas leading by 11% has driven trader consensus to price him at 41% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election, triggered by Catherine Connolly's election as President and scheduled for late May. The first such survey underscores his strong local profile as a long-serving Galway County Council member amid anti-establishment sentiment. A "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced this week among six candidates—Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (15.5%), PBP-Solidarity's Denman Rooke (14%), Labour's Helen Ogbu, Soc Dems' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and independent Sheila Garrity—aims to consolidate progressive transfers under Ireland's PR-STV system, elevating their odds. Fianna Fáil's selection convention today could introduce a new contender, while Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and independents like Thomas Welby and mayor Mike Cubbard trail.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Noel Thomas" con 40%, seguido de "Mark Lohan" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 40¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 40% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" ha generado $19.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es "Noel Thomas" con 40%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 40% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Mark Lohan" con 16%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.