Trader consensus favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 38% implied probability following a March 27 Vote HQ poll showing him leading first preferences at 25%, bolstered by his strong Conamara base and local councillor experience amid anti-government sentiment in by-elections. Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne holds 17% on his prior ministerial record, while Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (16%) and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke (14%) benefit from a new "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced March 27 among six left-leaning candidates—including Lohan, Rooke, Labour's Helen Ogbu, Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and Independent Sheila Garrity—aiming to consolidate transfers in the PR-STV system. Crowded field of 11 declared runners, Fianna Fáil selection convention March 29, and late May polling date heighten uncertainty in this midterm contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
Noel Thomas 39%
Mark Lohan 16%
Seán Kyne 15%
Denman Rooke 14%
$19,888 Vol.
$19,888 Vol.
Sheila Garrity
8%
Seán Kyne
15%
Niall Murphy
4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
12%
Orla Nugent
12%
Helen Ogbu
8%
Denman Rooke
14%
Noel Thomas
39%
Thomas Welby
11%
Mike Cubbard
7%
Mark Lohan
16%
Noel Thomas 39%
Mark Lohan 16%
Seán Kyne 15%
Denman Rooke 14%
$19,888 Vol.
$19,888 Vol.
Sheila Garrity
8%
Seán Kyne
15%
Niall Murphy
4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
12%
Orla Nugent
12%
Helen Ogbu
8%
Denman Rooke
14%
Noel Thomas
39%
Thomas Welby
11%
Mike Cubbard
7%
Mark Lohan
16%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 38% implied probability following a March 27 Vote HQ poll showing him leading first preferences at 25%, bolstered by his strong Conamara base and local councillor experience amid anti-government sentiment in by-elections. Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne holds 17% on his prior ministerial record, while Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (16%) and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke (14%) benefit from a new "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact announced March 27 among six left-leaning candidates—including Lohan, Rooke, Labour's Helen Ogbu, Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Greens' Niall Murphy, and Independent Sheila Garrity—aiming to consolidate transfers in the PR-STV system. Crowded field of 11 declared runners, Fianna Fáil selection convention March 29, and late May polling date heighten uncertainty in this midterm contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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