Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid narco-terrorism charges, no additional large-scale attacks on Venezuelan territory have materialized in the past 90 days. Trader sentiment hinges on ongoing US naval operations against suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, including a March 25 strike sinking a Venezuelan-linked boat and killing four, now the 47th such action since September 2025 and recently condemned by Human Rights Watch. Diplomatic pressures continue via threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, oil revenue seizures, and President Trump's signals of a potential "second and much larger attack" to enable US firms to rebuild infrastructure. Political instability, Chavismo resistance, and coalition negotiations in Caracas could prompt escalation before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$2,526,481 Vol.
31 ene 2026
31 de diciembre
18%
$2,526,481 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$485,179 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid narco-terrorism charges, no additional large-scale attacks on Venezuelan territory have materialized in the past 90 days. Trader sentiment hinges on ongoing US naval operations against suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, including a March 25 strike sinking a Venezuelan-linked boat and killing four, now the 47th such action since September 2025 and recently condemned by Human Rights Watch. Diplomatic pressures continue via threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, oil revenue seizures, and President Trump's signals of a potential "second and much larger attack" to enable US firms to rebuild infrastructure. Political instability, Chavismo resistance, and coalition negotiations in Caracas could prompt escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volumen
$2,526,481Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid narco-terrorism charges, no additional large-scale attacks on Venezuelan territory have materialized in the past 90 days. Trader sentiment hinges on ongoing US naval operations against suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, including a March 25 strike sinking a Venezuelan-linked boat and killing four, now the 47th such action since September 2025 and recently condemned by Human Rights Watch. Diplomatic pressures continue via threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, oil revenue seizures, and President Trump's signals of a potential "second and much larger attack" to enable US firms to rebuild infrastructure. Political instability, Chavismo resistance, and coalition negotiations in Caracas could prompt escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,526,481Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid narco-terrorism charges, no additional large-scale attacks on Venezuelan territory have materialized in the past 90 days. Trader sentiment hinges on ongoing US naval operations against suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, including a March 25 strike sinking a Venezuelan-linked boat and killing four, now the 47th such action since September 2025 and recently condemned by Human Rights Watch. Diplomatic pressures continue via threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, oil revenue seizures, and President Trump's signals of a potential "second and much larger attack" to enable US firms to rebuild infrastructure. Political instability, Chavismo resistance, and coalition negotiations in Caracas could prompt escalation before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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