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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

abr 10

may 10

abr 10

may 10

3rd hottest 42%

2nd hottest 31%

4th or lower 25%

1st hottest 19%

Polymarket
NUEVO

3rd hottest 42%

2nd hottest 31%

4th or lower 25%

1st hottest 19%

Polymarket
NUEVO

1st hottest

$907 Vol.

19%

2nd hottest

$219 Vol.

31%

3rd hottest

$230 Vol.

35%

4th or lower

$672 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global surface air temperature anomalies for April 1–3, 2026, with ERA5 reanalysis data poised to rank these days as 2nd or 3rd hottest on record at 33.5% and 35.5% implied probabilities, respectively—edging out a new record (21.5%) or 4th or lower (22.0%). Driving this are elevated sea surface temperatures persisting from 2025's third-warmest year, combined with La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions per NOAA forecasts, reducing cooling influences after January and February 2026 ranked 5th warmest. Differentiators include day-to-day variability in atmospheric circulation and marine heat content, which could nudge anomalies above 2024 peaks (likely 1st) or align closer to 2016/2025 levels; final Copernicus bulletins expected soon will clarify amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,998
Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global surface air temperature anomalies for April 1–3, 2026, with ERA5 reanalysis data poised to rank these days as 2nd or 3rd hottest on record at 33.5% and 35.5% implied probabilities, respectively—edging out a new record (21.5%) or 4th or lower (22.0%). Driving this are elevated sea surface temperatures persisting from 2025's third-warmest year, combined with La Niña's fade to ENSO-neutral conditions per NOAA forecasts, reducing cooling influences after January and February 2026 ranked 5th warmest. Differentiators include day-to-day variability in atmospheric circulation and marine heat content, which could nudge anomalies above 2024 peaks (likely 1st) or align closer to 2016/2025 levels; final Copernicus bulletins expected soon will clarify amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,998
Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "3rd hottest" con 35%, seguido de "2nd hottest" con 31%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 35¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 24, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" es "3rd hottest" con 35%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "2nd hottest" con 31%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.