Recent party gatherings, including the October 2026 fifth plenum, have reinforced trader consensus on Xi Jinping’s continued leadership through at least the 2027 congress, with record purges thinning rival networks in the Central Committee and Central Military Commission while state messaging stresses unity around his core authority. Analysts note the absence of any designated successor or signals of transition, alongside Xi’s expected fourth term extension, as structural factors limiting near-term removal risks. The implied probability near 98% on continuity aligns with these developments and historical patterns of entrenched CCP leadership. Late-breaking health events or abrupt elite realignments remain the primary variables that could still shift outcomes before 2027.