Trader consensus reflects a 60.5% implied probability of Donald Trump facing impeachment before his second presidential term ends on January 20, 2029, primarily due to the razor-thin Republican House majority (220-215 following the 2024 elections), which amplifies risks of defections amid anticipated controversies over executive actions like mass deportations or agency purges. Recent developments, including the withdrawal of Matt Gaetz's attorney general nomination amid ethics probes and ongoing scrutiny of other cabinet picks such as RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services, underscore GOP internal fractures that could erode party discipline. Democrats, holding oversight roles despite minority status, have signaled readiness to pursue articles of impeachment, echoing Trump's two prior House impeachments, though Senate conviction remains a high bar with the 53-47 Republican edge. The 119th Congress convenes January 3, 2025, as the next key milestone.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
$11,112 Vol.
$11,112 Vol.
$11,112 Vol.
$11,112 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 60.5% implied probability of Donald Trump facing impeachment before his second presidential term ends on January 20, 2029, primarily due to the razor-thin Republican House majority (220-215 following the 2024 elections), which amplifies risks of defections amid anticipated controversies over executive actions like mass deportations or agency purges. Recent developments, including the withdrawal of Matt Gaetz's attorney general nomination amid ethics probes and ongoing scrutiny of other cabinet picks such as RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services, underscore GOP internal fractures that could erode party discipline. Democrats, holding oversight roles despite minority status, have signaled readiness to pursue articles of impeachment, echoing Trump's two prior House impeachments, though Senate conviction remains a high bar with the 53-47 Republican edge. The 119th Congress convenes January 3, 2025, as the next key milestone.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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